Only the voices of sellers are heard, but no buyers are seen. The yarn market has a bad start in the Year of the Ox
1. One-week market performance of each yarn product market
Shengze Market: The price of cotton yarn in Shengze market did not change last week. In terms of sales, the sales of 32S, 40S and 60S products were relatively active, but the prices of other cotton yarn products There is basically no change. The market prices of J32S and J32S high-end yarns remain at 17,900-18,000 yuan/ton and 18,800-19,000 yuan/ton respectively. The market for polyester and viscose yarn is still weak, with prices consolidating steadily. Except for the good downstream demand for 65/35 45s polyester-cotton yarn, other specifications are still sluggish. Last week, the market’s focus on pure polyester yarn transaction prices shifted downward. The prices of 32S, 45S, and 50S pure polyester yarns were all reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton. In terms of sales, the downstream demand for 45S products was acceptable, while other specifications were sluggish. Last week, the prices of a few varieties of rayon yarn in the Shengze market continued to fall. By the end of last week, the prices of 10S and 30S rayon yarns were 15,100 yuan/ton and 15,800 yuan/ton respectively. The trading situation in the rayon yarn market was average.
Shaoxing Market: The yarn market in this market performed generally last week. By the end of last week, the mainstream prices of 32s and 40s knitting yarn in the market were around 16,500 yuan/ton and 17,500 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of 40s combed yarn was 21,000–21,800 yuan/ton, with the lower price at 20,500—20,800. Yuan / ton. Last week, the market confidence in the rayon yarn market was still insufficient, and the shipping mentality of yarn mills dominated. Last weekend, the mainstream price of 30s ring spinning yarn in this market was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 30s ring spinning knitting yarn was around 16,500 yuan/ton. The polyester yarn situation in the market was stable last week, and the supply price for knitting from major manufacturers in the 32s was around 10,700 yuan/ton. The recent sales and prices of blended yarns have been sluggish. The polyester and viscose yarn market has been in a low trend, and the market price is low. The mainstream price of 32s70/30 medium and long polyester and viscose yarn in the market is around 13,500 yuan/ton, with a lower price of 13,000 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere for polyester-cotton yarn is even more priceless.
Changyi, Shandong: The overall market conditions were weak last week, and the prices of cotton yarn products were still falling. By the end of last week, the current market transaction prices of the mainstream pure cotton yarn products 21S, 23S, and 32S in Changyi market were 13,700-13,700- 13,800 yuan/ton, 14,100-14,300 yuan/ton, 15,400-15,600 yuan/ton. The price of polyester yarn products in this market remained stable last week. The best-selling pure polyester yarn products include Xiaohua 21S, 23S, and Dahua 32S. By the end of last week, the market transaction center prices were 9,000 yuan/ton and 9,300 yuan/ton respectively. , 12,800 yuan/ton. In terms of sales, due to the small amount of merchants purchasing goods and inventory, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the market transactions are very dull.
2. One-week market performance of upstream raw material products
Cotton: After the country introduced a 1.5 million tons purchase and storage policy, the purchase and storage volume in 2008 has reached 2.72 million tons, accounting for about 35% of the total annual cotton production. The intensity is beyond the expectations of industry insiders. It is worth noting that this purchase and storage requires delivery companies to purchase seed cotton sold by farmers at a price of no less than 2.6 yuan/jin for the delivery quota won in the trading market, and must provide the corresponding purchase code when delivering storage. Order, come with the goods. This news played a great role in restoring the confidence of cotton farmers. As of January 8, the third batch of purchases and storage has accumulated a total transaction volume of 458,650 tons. Since the start of the annual purchase and storage in 2008, the mainland has completed a cumulative purchase and storage plan of 610,850 tons, and Xinjiang has completed a total of 1,067,800 tons. The short-term effects of the state’s increase in purchasing and stockpiling have begun to show. Especially recently, many cotton companies are purchasing high-quality cotton from farmers and making large bales of cotton for storage.
With the intensification of purchasing and storage, the spot market has gradually stabilized since November 2008, with quotations in various places rising steadily. Especially after the introduction of the policy of adding 1.5 million tons of reserves, the cotton market has received strong support, and cotton prices have increased significantly. The spot quotation has increased from 10,395 yuan/ton in late November last year to the current 11,053 yuan/ton, a price increase of 6.33%.
Polyester staple fiber: The domestic polyester staple fiber market rose last week, the sales situation improved, and the price also increased accordingly. The current general delivery transaction price in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has rebounded to 7100-7150 yuan/ton, and the Shandong market has rebounded to 7150-7150 yuan/ton. 7,250 yuan/ton, although the price has only increased by 50 yuan, it is already a comfort to the market that has been sluggish recently.
Viscose staple fiber: The market price of viscose staple fiber was firm last week, basically stable at 11,300-11,600 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers have more transactions at the 11,500 yuan/ton line, and at the same time, manufacturers’ inventories have also been effectively reduced.
Three: Short-term market trend prediction
Cotton yarn: Judging from the current situation, with the increase in the number of purchases and storage, the regulation of the market is also increasing, and the spot market has received greater support. The amount of seed cotton purchased continues to increase, and various regions are actively purchasing, and the reluctance of cotton farmers to sell will continue to decrease. At the same time, affected by the international market, domestic electronic trading has entered a period of adjustment. Affected by this, the market for cotton by-products will stabilize, and cotton seed prices will also rise and maintain stability. In addition, American economist Anderson believes that the cotton sown area in the United States in 2009 may drop to 7.6 million acres, and the harvested area may only be 7-7.1 million acres. Historical data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show that at this level, the U.S. cotton sown area in 2009 will be the lowest on record, and the harvested area will be the lowest since 1968, when the cotton sown area was only 6.973 million acres three years after the end of the U.S. Civil War. 10.82 million acres, compared with 15.27 million acres in 2006. This good news also provided support for U.S. cotton, with the U.S. market rising and falling.It also affects domestic Zheng cotton to a certain extent, but the supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and cotton prices still lack enough motivation to break upward. However, from a technical point of view, the willingness of bulls to control the market is becoming more and more obvious. If the futures price can form an effective breakthrough to 12,000 points in the future, it is possible to rise further. Therefore, in the future, the cotton market should focus on the following factors: 1. Changes in the economic environment. Since the economic situation dominates the trend of the entire commodity market, the improvement of the financial environment has a great effect on boosting investor confidence. 2. Whether the domestic textile industry can recover soon. The rise and fall of the textile industry determines upstream cotton consumption, which in turn affects the price of cotton. 3. Later policy guidance, government subsidies, expansion of domestic demand, etc. 4. Changes in crude oil prices and the US dollar index. These affect the overall trend of commodities. From the author’s point of view, only when the upstream cotton market is doing well can the downstream cotton yarn market have a chance to perform.
Polyester yarn: International oil prices have fallen, the market atmosphere for polyester raw materials has been deserted, and the wait-and-see attitude in the polyester short-circuit market has increased. At the same time, the downstream yarn market is still sluggish, and downstream yarn companies and market traders are just following what is used to maintain production and Therefore, it is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will consolidate in the short term, so it is predicted that the polyester yarn market will not change significantly under this situation.
Rayon yarn: The decline in inventory of viscose staple fiber manufacturers last week was mainly caused by downstream rayon yarn manufacturers stocking up before the year. Therefore, from this perspective, this is just a stock transfer. Therefore, viscose staple fiber There is still a lack of motivation and foundation for rising prices. As long as the raw materials do not perform well and the downstream demand is sluggish, it will be difficult for the price of rayon yarn to get out of the shadows.
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