According to customs statistics, my country exported approximately 28,200 tons of cotton yarn in August 2019, an increase of 0.13% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.93%; from January to August 2019, my country exported a total of 267,700 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 6% ( From January to August, a total of 1.33 million tons of cotton yarn were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 7%); while from May to July, my country’s cotton yarn exports increased by -6.46%, 15.48%, and -17.3% respectively. It can be seen that cotton yarn exports increased year-on-year The significant decrease was concentrated in July and August.
It is worth noting that the RMB depreciated by more than 4% in August and the CY2001 price fell from 21455 to 19965 (a drop of 1490 points, a decrease of 6.94%), which led to the continued improvement of the competitiveness of domestic yarns and other benefits. Stop the decline in cotton yarn exports.
Cotton spinning mills and export companies in Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places stated that since July, the prevalence of 50S and above The export orders of carded, combed yarn and compact spinning yarn have started a relatively obvious downward trend. Some manufacturers have to take measures such as reducing yarn count and cotton distribution, changing the spinning of chemical fiber yarns, and increasing the output of blended yarns and new fiber yarns. Maintain production and reduce risks; production and sales did not show much improvement in September. “Golden Nine has not yet arrived, but Silver Ten is a difficult period.” Therefore, it is expected that cotton yarn exports will remain weak, and it is difficult to be “unsatisfactory”.
Why did cotton yarn exports “fall off the chain” again in August due to favorable exchange rates and prices? The author analyzes and summarizes the following points:
First, the growth of global consumption of textiles and clothing is weak and even facing a rapid decline. The United Nations’ 2019 Trade and Development Report pointed out that the world economy is heading towards trouble, with trade frictions, exchange rate changes, corporate debt, no-deal Brexit and inverted yields all raising warnings. Weak global demand in 2019, coupled with the U.S. government’s unilateral tariff actions, will severely slow down global trade growth this year;
Second, the euro and pound continue to depreciate, and imported cotton yarn, spinning Service costs have risen sharply. According to statistics, in the first and second quarters of 2019, the EU’s clothing imports from China not only fell by 10.2% and more than 5% year-on-year, but its clothing imports from India and Turkey also dropped by 1.1% and 4.1% respectively in the second quarter, thus affecting China’s cotton yarn Online exports; in the second quarter, the unit price of Chinese clothing imported by the EU increased by 9.8%, which is not a big deal;
Thirdly, the impact of the Sino-US trade war is penetrating from the “surface” into the “body” “Not only are cotton spinning mills less enthusiastic about accepting export orders, European and American buyers are also very cautious in issuing orders. Some yarn mills said that because they were worried about the losses caused by the US’s increased tariffs on imported cotton yarn, textile clothing, etc., foreign buyers adopted practices such as lowering contract prices or increasing tariffs and passing them on to Chinese manufacturers. This was widely boycotted by Chinese companies, and “it is better to have less than to indiscriminately” has become a The general attitude of cotton textile mills;
Fourthly, the competitive advantage of domestically produced medium and high-count yarns has gradually weakened, and the substitution ability of Southeast Asian products has increased. On the one hand, domestic yarn mills bid in large quantities and purchase state-owned cotton with high cost performance, which not only reduces the cost of spinning raw materials, but also leads to a decline in the quality indicators and stability of medium and high-count cotton yarns; on the other hand, yarn mills in Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other countries purchase cotton The gap between high-quality machine-picked cotton such as American cotton, Australian cotton, and Brazilian cotton, medium and high-count carded and combed yarns, and domestic brand yarns is constantly narrowing, and the substitutability of cotton yarns of 60S and below is increasing. </p
