Unconsciously, the polyester dual raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have started a rebound in mid-November, ending the long-lasting decline. Among them, the maximum rebound rate of the PTA2001 contract is about 4%, and the maximum rebound rate of the ethylene glycol 2001 contract is about 5.5%.
The rising cost has simultaneously driven the rebound of polyester filament. As of November 25, polyester yarn prices have increased by 50-250 yuan/ton compared with recent lows. For companies that just need to operate, the constant decline in the early stage will lead to losses the next day when buying raw materials on the same day. However, the recent mild price increase will bring additional profit margins. It is like a bargain hunting opportunity. Have you seized it? ?
Have you been tortured by the ever-increasing market situation and become dizzy and at a loss? According to the author’s communication, there are indeed textile bosses who, after their own comprehensive analysis and judgment, purchased raw materials at the bottom before the rebound.
However, stocking up at the bottom It also requires courage. After all, the industry’s prosperity is low. Being able to buy goods for more than ten days during a decline is also taking a risk and betting on a high probability. After thinking about it, I still bought less.
The author believes that although the industry is in recession, there are still many textile bosses who are working hard and paying attention to According to the market, when the market continues to fall, the replenishment mode is the main mode. Once the market improves and there are signs of rebounding, then based on the raw material and product inventory levels of your own factory, you can stock up appropriately and risk what you can afford. If you take risks, you can do better than your peers. So, how to assess the situation and seize the critical opportunity?
In any link of the industrial chain, good market analysis is necessary.
Everything must be forewarned or not. We cannot just let the market rise and fall. We must have a clear understanding of the current industry situation.
This round of rebound is caused by losses in all aspects and the absolute price has dropped to history It is at a lower position, especially the PTA has been discounted by 50% compared to the historical high, and the absolute price is more attractive. It was opened due to comprehensive factors.
“It is difficult to succeed behind closed doors.” It is also necessary to communicate and learn from peers from time to time. Regardless of the fluctuations in the futures market or the operating conditions of the spot market, the acquisition of information plays an important role in decision-making and judgment. appears particularly important.
Do a good job in inventory management. During a downturn, inventory depreciation takes up funds.
There is a long way to go, and most inventories in the entire industry chain are accumulating. Unless production is significantly reduced and burdens are reduced, the market will be dominated by just-needed purchases, and the entire industry chain is basically All are at a loss.
In this situation of declining demand, every link in the industrial chain must do a good job in inventory management and strictly control the quantity relationship between raw materials and finished products. “Cash is king.” Keep your capital advantage so that you can have more funds in stock when there is a rebound or when a new business cycle begins.
“When rising, there are risks, and when falling, there are opportunities.” Textile people must firmly believe that periodic opportunities will never be absent
We can see from the picture below that PTA is indeed in a bearish channel, which will also cause great difficulties to the production and operation of almost all links in the industrial chain. At this time, we must firmly believe in the “falling out opportunity” , combined with the characteristics of the textile industry, rigid demand, especially domestic demand, is still very large, and periodic opportunities will never be absent.
Make full use of crude oil-PTA-EG futures
As we all know, the source of futures is to serve the real economy. Although futures have also been criticized: “speculative tools”, “most lose money”, etc., if we do sufficient research and develop effective hedging strategies between spot and futures, then, we I believe that no matter whether the market rises or falls, futures can always lock in risk exposure and reduce the losses of physical operations.
For small businesses, even if they do not participate in hedging, they should always pay attention to their price changes and summarize the rules. Service entity operations.
Recognize the current macro environment and industry situation, and at the same time understand that in the long road of low industry prosperity and the self-repair of the industry chain, cash is king. In the case of market share��Do a good job in inventory management and device startup and shutdown, always pay attention to the market, comprehensively analyze and make decisions, and when periodic opportunities arise, take risks you can bear, and I believe you will do better! </p
