In November, with the completion of maintenance and repair of large-scale units of Hengli Petrochemical and Hanbang Petrochemical, domestic PTA supply has rebounded, and futures prices have fallen further. On November 12, the main contract 2001 fell to a minimum of 4,648 yuan/ton. As of the close of November 25, the 2001 contract closed at 4,808 yuan/ton.
Downstream demand has entered the off-season
After the end of the maintenance peak in October, the maintenance intensity of domestic PTA devices was significantly weakened in November. Without considering the temporary short-term shutdown of the device, Under this situation, only the 1.5 million tons/year unit of Tongkun Petrochemical, the 700,000 tons/year unit of Yadong Petrochemical, and the 2 million tons/year unit of Hainan Yisheng have maintenance arrangements, and these units are all planned to be completed within this week. Maintenance, among which Tongkun Petrochemical and Hainan Yisheng units have been restarted, the start-up of domestic PTA units will once again increase to a state close to full production. As of November 25, the operating rate of domestic PTA devices was 92.08%.
Since mid-to-late October, as the winter order production of polyester companies has basically ended, downstream demand has gradually begun to transition to the off-season. The start-up of polyester factories has shown a slow decline. Although market production and sales have occasionally recovered, But the duration is shorter. As of November 25, the operating rate of polyester factories was 87.20%, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 74.5%; in the week of November 21, the average weekly production and sales rate of polyester chips was 104%, and the weekly average of polyester staple fiber and polyester filament The average production and sales rates were 92% and 100.8% respectively.
There is still room for compression of processing profits
Since this year, the entire PTA industry chain has been facing a situation of profit compression. As a direct raw material for PTA, PX is facing a large number of new production capacities being put into production this year, including Hengli Petrochemical’s 4.5 million tons/year, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I and other large-scale installations. The rapid expansion of production capacity has caused PX prices to drop significantly, and PX processing profits have also been significantly compressed. Although the polyester industry still has certain rigid demand support in terms of terminal textiles, the overall demand is relatively flat. In order to reduce finished product inventory and increase sales, polyester companies often adopt price reduction and preferential sales strategies. However, their own profits are also compressed. Especially after the National Day holiday, the profits of various polyester varieties further deteriorated, and polyester filament FDY It has been in a loss-making state since October, and the profits of other varieties have also fallen to the lows of the year.
Due to the misalignment in the time when new production capacity is put into production, PTA processing profits have been at a high level for most of this year. In early July, processing profits once reached 2,423.37 yuan/ton (excluding fixed costs, next ), reaching a record high. However, as the new equipment is put into operation at the end of the year, PTA processing profits have begun to decline. At the end of October, one of the lines of Xinfengming’s (603225, Stock Bar) Phase 1 2.2 million tons/year device was officially put into operation, and the curtain of PTA production capacity expansion officially kicked off. In addition, the 1.1 million tons/year unit of another line of Xinfengming Phase 1 is about to be commissioned and put into operation. The 1.2 million tons/year PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical and the 2.5 million tons/year unit of Hengli Petrochemical Phase 4 are planned to be launched around December 20. , put into production at the end of December. As of November 25, PTA processing profit was 584.86 yuan/ton, and Hengli Petrochemical’s latest Line 4 device has a processing fixed cost of only about 350 yuan/ton. Therefore, although the current PTA processing profit is at a low level during the year, it There is still some room for compression in an environment of capacity expansion.
In short, the price of PTA will be weak in the market outlook, and the operation will be short selling on highs. </p
