On March 30, international oil prices fell sharply again, and WTI crude oil futures gapped and opened lower, falling by more than 7% in just half an hour, falling below $20. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 7% in early trading, reaching a low of $19.92 per barrel, the lowest level since at least 2002.
Last week (March 23 to the 29th), as central banks and governments of various countries continued to introduce and increase stimulus measures, European and American stock markets rebounded collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 13% during the week, the largest weekly increase since 1938. Germany’s DAX index rose 7.9% on a weekly basis and France’s CAC40 index rose 7.5% on a weekly basis, both recording their largest weekly gains since December 2011, ending five consecutive weeks of decline. Both WTI and Brent crude oil have fallen by about 2/3 this year.
The crude oil market structure is in a premium structure (Contango), and the amplitude is the extreme value in ten years. According to Reuters calculations, last week, Russia’s benchmark export-grade medium sour Urals crude oil was only US$18 per barrel, while Saudi Arabia sold its Arab Light crude oil in Europe for US$16 per barrel. The price difference between the front-month contract and the far-month contract in the futures market exceeds 10 US dollars, which is also at a historical level and is the largest price difference since the worst period of the global financial crisis in January 2009.
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last Thursday that global crude oil demand is expected to drop by 20%.
In this regard, Russell Hardy, CEO of Swiss Vitol, the world’s largest independent crude oil trader, said that such a large drop in demand “we have never seen before.”
And Saudi Arabia has shown no signs of stopping the price war so far, and the country and Russia have not expressed any intention to return to the negotiating table.
No one knows how long the epidemic and price war will last, and there are not enough data and facts for analysts to make judgments.
This spring, international oil prices have plummeted, which is good news for major oil importing countries. However, it means the arrival of a cold winter for the entire chemical fiber industry. At the same time, the recent public health incidents abroad have continued to ferment. Under this situation, the textile industry and foreign trade are worried, and the price trend of polyester filament continues to fall, which has hit the market confidence that is on the verge of collapse.
Polyester filament: started a “waterfall” decline, and the market was in chaos!
Polyester filament, as the mainstream product in the polyester market, has been devastated in the previous “battle”, and its price has reached the “floor price”. Starting from the end of the year, due to the high inventory situation of polyester filament and the serious lack of downstream demand, the price of polyester filament began to decline in a “waterfall” style.
It takes less than a month to resume work after the holiday. As can be seen from the table, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain have dropped by 900-2,000 yuan. Specifically, the price of polyester filament POY products is around 4,950 yuan/ton. , a decrease of nearly 1,900 yuan/ton from 6,850 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The price of FDY products is around 5,325 yuan/ton, down nearly 1,825 yuan/ton from 7,150 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The price of DTY products is around 6,925 yuan/ton, down nearly 1,825 yuan/ton from 7,150 yuan/ton in the same period last month. 1525 yuan/ton. The profits of polyester filament have continued to fall and are now in a state of loss. Compared with the same period last month, profits have plummeted by more than 100%.
As various parts of the country promote the resumption of work and production, the downstream gradually recovers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang It recovered to 73%, returning to normal levels. This may be due to the domestic rush to resume work and the rush to prepare early export orders. At present, the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and the United States is very serious, and it is difficult to say when it will peak. The demand for overseas textiles has plummeted. my country’s textile exports account for nearly 60%. Overseas demand is sluggish, domestic textile export orders have decreased, and domestic textile products are backlogged.
Polyester factory: Accumulated storage pressure has risen sharply, and it is not ruled out that some factories may have early maintenance expectations
From the perspective of polyester factories, the current load It has returned to a relatively high level, and inventories remain high. As of last week, the low end of some POY factory inventories was around 15-20 days, and the high end was around 30-48 days; FDY factory inventories were mostly around 23-30 days, and the high end was around 23-30 days. The inventory is about one and a half months, and the low-end is around half a month; DTY inventory is mostly around 38-47 days, the high-end inventory is around two months, and the low-end inventory is around half a month.
Affected by the decline in export orders, the inventory and financial pressure of textile enterprises have increased. The enthusiasm for starting operations in the second quarter will decline, and the operating rate of looms may decline. This will intensify the accumulated inventory pressure of the polyester industry, thus forcing it to decline. load. According to statistics, major manufacturers have plans to reduce their load. Jiangsu Shenghong’s 200,000-ton polyester yarn unit has reduced its load this week, Tianlong New Materials’ 200,000 tons/year, Southeast New Materials’ 300,000 tons/year, and Tiansheng’s 200,000 tons. /Year polyester equipment has been gradually increased. Yingxiang originally planned to restart the 200,000 tons/year polyester yarn unit in the near future, but it has now been postponed to June. Moreover, Tongkun Hengteng, Hengyou, and Hengsheng all have maintenance plans in the near future, and it cannot be ruled out that some factories may be expected to undergo maintenance in advance.
In the later stage, affected by international crude oil, the market was pessimistic and international crude oil prices fell again. Some polyester factories will undergo maintenance in mid-March, and the restart time has not yet been determined. As of now, the polyester filament production rate is 84.06%. Recommendations for downstream weaving resumption are slow, polyester factory inventory pressure is high, European and American textile and apparel export orders have a huge impact, and domestic and foreign trade orders have led to delays or cancellations. Although polyester is longSilk companies continue to increase their promotional efforts, but with little success. Because under the dual pressure of production, sales and demand, polyester filament is expected to decline. </p
