1. Review of cotton prices at home and abroad
1. Review of current prices
This week, ICE price performance was stronger than domestic, and the overall trend showed a slight upward trend. The spot price and futures price trends consistent. Domestic futures prices have generally fluctuated downward: cotton futures prices have fallen by a similar amount, around 100 yuan/ton; yarn futures prices have fallen more than spot prices. In India, the spread of the global epidemic and the falling international cotton prices have caused India’s domestic cotton prices to continue to decline weakly. This week, India’s domestic cotton spot prices continued to fall, with a weekly decline of 500 rupees/kandi.
2. Import market price review
Due to a slight increase in international cotton prices, cotton imports this week Prices followed suit, rising by dozens of yuan/ton; due to the impact of the new coronavirus, global textile consumption shrank, and the price of low-count imported yarn fell.
2. Domestic fundamentals 1. Processing inspection is coming to an end, and the cotton commercial inventory continues to hit new highs. According to the China Cotton Notary Inspection Network, as of April 22, 2020, a total of 5.2321 million tons of cotton have been inspected nationwide in 2019, of which Xinjiang The inspection volume was 5.0759 million tons; the mainland inspection volume was 156,000 tons. According to survey data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of April 17, 2020, the national sales rate was 70.9%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 71.9%. In terms of inventory, according to relevant statistics, as of the end of March, the national cotton industry inventory was 714,200 tons, a slight decrease from last month, and a decrease of 127,500 tons from the same period last year; the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.63 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 336,000 tons tons, an increase of 470,000 tons year-on-year, and the stock reached a record high in recent years.
2. Downstream operating rates declined and inventories increased. The overall cotton yarn market continued to perform this week. Weak stability, yarn prices continue to fall. Although domestic sales orders provide certain support to the market, external demand is sluggish and new orders are lacking, and the overall inventory level is still on the rise. Affected by sluggish downstream demand, the operating rates of yarn and gray fabrics continued to decline. The market is generally pessimistic about the market outlook, and some manufacturers have plans to extend their holidays on May Day.
3. Futures market conditions
1. Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts
As of April 22, Zheng Mian registered warehouse There are 28,138 orders (1.1255 million tons), and 5,066 valid forecasts (202,600 tons). The total amount of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is 1.328 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last Wednesday. The total amount of warehouse receipts continues to decline.
2. Zheng cotton futures price difference
As of April 22, CCI3128B Index The price difference with Zheng cotton futures is 75 yuan/ton. Last Wednesday, the price difference was 306 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and current prices has narrowed.
4. In terms of news: 1. Global COVID-19 is still serious. Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of about 6:30 on April 23, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide There were 2,622,273 cases and a total of 182,943 deaths. Among them, a total of 840,340 cases have been diagnosed in the United States and 46,560 have died. 2. The intended cotton planting area nationwide in 2020 is 46.1826 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4.10%, and the decline is 0.93 percentage points smaller than the previous period. 3. The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2020, my country exported approximately US$15.430 billion in textiles and clothing, a year-on-year decrease of 15.13%. In the first quarter, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$45.2637 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.63%. 4. It is rumored that relevant agencies will meet to discuss plans to increase the purchase and storage of some agricultural products. Among them, 1 million tons of cotton were purchased and stored. The global COVID-19 situation is still severe, and the downstream demand for cotton spinning abroad is basically at a semi-stagnant state; the domestic epidemic situation is well controlled, and demand is slowly recovering, which has certain support for cotton spinning. The worst period of the new coronavirus pneumonia has passed, and Europe and the United States are gradually resuming economic activities. There are not many negative factors in the short term. However, the recovery of textile consumption is a slow process, and no obvious inflow of foreign orders has been seen yet. Despite the support of domestic consumption, inventory accumulation is still present in the downstream. The market is generally pessimistic about the market outlook, and some manufacturers have cut prices and sold off to reduce inventory pressure. From the current base of Zheng MianFrom a general perspective, the supply side is relatively stable, and the demand side is difficult to see substantial improvement in the short term, so it is not recommended to pursue more. There are rumors in the market that 1 million tons of cotton reserves will be purchased, but the price will be bullish during the period, so it needs to be treated with caution. At present, it is the time for new cotton planting in the northern hemisphere, and the new cotton planting area has attracted much attention from the market.
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