The World Trade Organization (WTO) has recently based its decision on three situations (V-shaped, U-shaped and L-shaped) analyzes global GDP growth. The V-type is based on social isolation for 3 months, the U-shaped is based on 6 months, and the L-shaped is based on more than one year.
Foreign analysts believe that if it is V-shaped, then the worst situation for cotton consumption should be Already reflected in prices, global consumption may increase by 5.4 million packs in 2020/21. If it is U-shaped, consumption this year is expected to decrease by 11.6 million packages, and there may be more adjustments later. The lost consumption is not expected to be recovered until after 2021. The L shape means that global consumption will decrease by approximately 11 million packages, and will only increase by 3.6 million packages in 2021.
As the blockades in various countries are gradually lifted, the possibility of an L-shaped situation is estimated to be unlikely, but considering the unemployment caused by the epidemic, the recovery of cotton consumption will be very slow.
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