According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market price first rose and then fell this week. Trend: As of May 22, the average domestic PTA spot market price was 3,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.62% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%. Crude oil continued to strengthen, maintenance of its own equipment increased, and suppliers repurchased spot goods. Driven by this, the center of gravity of PTA prices continued to move upward. However, the price fell back and adjusted on the 22nd, with a single-day decline of 1.99%.
In terms of equipment, the 400,000-ton PTA unit of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance in the morning of May 18, and the maintenance is scheduled to last 28 days. Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons PTA unit will be shut down for maintenance on the 19th, and the maintenance is scheduled to take 1-2 weeks. Domestic PTA operating load dropped from 92% to around 87%. Main PTA companies with maintenance plans in June include Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng Chemical Fiber. The expansion of profit levels has reduced the willingness of PTA factories to perform maintenance, and the possibility of postponing maintenance cannot be ruled out. In terms of inventory, the production capacity at the beginning of the year combined with the high operating rate, and the current social inventory is more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fees, PTA processing fees have fluctuated between 700-800 yuan/ton since May. Such processing fee levels are undoubtedly high in the current stage of overcapacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and continuous profit concessions. The results given.
In the upstream crude oil market, supported by a larger-than-expected contraction in supply and improvement in demand, prices have shown A pattern of rising shocks. However, the performance of PX was not satisfactory, and the price remained weak. Although some equipment in Asia was overhauled in May, the supply of PX was still abundant. As of May 21, the closing prices in Asia were US$488/ton FOB South Korea and US$508/ton CFR China.
Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan/ton
The downstream polyester market rebounded slightly. The most obvious increase was polyester FDY, with a weekly increase of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester staple fiber, with increases of 3.37%, 2.93%, and 2.30% respectively. . The trend on the cost side is strong, boosting the price focus of the polyester market to further rise. However, downstream replenishment performance is weak, and there is a strong cautious sentiment. From the perspective of the terminal textile market, the domestic and foreign trade markets have recovered to a certain extent since May. Domestic demand has gradually recovered. Orders in the weaving market have improved slightly compared with the previous period. Goods are sold better than in the previous period. Manufacturers are more enthusiastic and the loom operating rate has rebounded by more than 62%. . Some overseas countries have announced the lifting of lockdowns, and export sales have quietly started. It is reported that orders have been placed in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia recently.
In terms of textile exports, according to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, my country’s textile and apparel exports were US$21.361 billion, a month-on-month increase of 38.43% and a year-on-year increase of 9.77 %. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was US$14.6207 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.36%; the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was US$6.7399 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.31%. From January to April, my country’s cumulative export value of textiles and clothing was US$66.626 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.06%, of which the cumulative export value of textiles was US$37.3115 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.90%; the cumulative export value of clothing was US$29.3089 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.33%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at Business News, believes that driven by the current positive cost side, the PTA market maintains a steady upward trend. However, it is worth noting that PTA’s problems of “high inventory, high processing fees, and high operating rates” have not been fundamentally solved. At the same time, the recovery of domestic and foreign trade in downstream terminals is slow, and the performance of orders is unstable. At present, raw material procurement remains mainly rigid demand. If subsequent orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of another reduction in loom load in late June cannot be ruled out. A substantial recovery needs to be observed. . Overall, negative factors still exist, and the sustained rise in PTA prices is under pressure, or may enter a correction stage.
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