Introduction: Crude oil has continued to strengthen in recent times, driving an overall rebound in commodities. Although the domestic operating load has dropped, ethylene glycol has followed suit and strengthened. However, due to the suppression of high inventories, the increase has been very limited, which is obviously not as good as that of polyolefin and other products.
The fear of heights is strong, the main port Shipment weakens
Comparison chart of shipments from East China’s main ports
Source: Longzhong Information
The rebound since the end of March has rebounded from a record low of 2,880 yuan/ton to the current level of around 3,620 yuan/ton, an increase of Reaching 25.69%. The public health incident has eased, and the downstream has recovered significantly. The output of polyester is slightly higher than the same period last year. The improvement of the demand side and the bargain-hunting behavior in the low-price area have driven the price center to strengthen. However, the high inventory shows no signs of easing, and the sentiment of chasing prices has weakened, which is reflected in the weakening of shipments from the main port. In the week of early June, the average daily shipment from the main port was only about 6,600 tons.
The inventory turning point in East China’s main port has been difficult to appear
East China’s main port Hong Kong inventory trend chart
Source: Longzhong Information
Although the domestic construction load is at a low level and domestic supply has decreased, under the influence of global public health events, foreign demand is not good and a large amount of imported resources has impacted China. At present, the storage capacity of the main port is tight, and there are varying degrees of port stagnation. Even so, the inventory of raw materials in downstream polyester factories is high and the transfer capacity is limited. As of June 8, the inventory of the main port in East China reached 1.301 million tons, with no signs of relief. According to the tracking of imported goods, destocking is still far away.
High inventory is still a huge problem facing ethylene glycol
Comparison chart of main port inventory availability days
Source: Longzhong Information
Although the operating load of the polyester end has returned to about 88%, due to the limited recovery of terminal orders and the difficulty of increasing the terminal load in high-temperature summers, the polyester end is once again facing the test of further increasing the load. The difficulty is greater. The data we have tracked shows that the number of usable days of inventory in the main port has declined, but it is still about 47.75 days, and the pressure is still high.
In summary, ethylene glycol is currently facing huge inventory pressure. In the later stage, units such as Zhongsha Tianjin and Yangzi BASF are about to With the return, there are also the restarts of coal-to-ethylene glycol companies such as Qianxi Coal Chemical, Yangmei Shouyang, and Yongjin Puyang. The return of domestic supply has put huge pressure on the supply side. Under the pressure of high inventories and a return in production, domestic ethylene glycol may be under pressure again. </p
