Overview:
U.S. crude oil The 09 contract made a slight correction last week, with a weekly decline of only 0.12%, closing at around $41. The trend of Brent oil 09 contract is basically the same as that of U.S. oil, with a weekly decline of only 0.16%, closing above $43. The overall trend of crude oil in the external market is volatile. The main contract of domestic SC crude oil in 2009 dropped 1.35% on a weekly basis and continued to fall in Friday night trading.
Overseas epidemics have recurred. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 3.8337 million, with more than 140,000 deaths, and more than 70,000 new diagnoses in a single day. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, and Peru is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 207,500.
Affected by the drainage backflow in Jiapu area of Changxing Market last week, the weaving operating rate dropped sharply to 53%, and the texturing operating rate dropped slightly to 69%. The polyester load began to decline last week and reached 90.90% on Friday. Polyester products have once again accumulated a large amount of inventory, inventory pressure has become prominent, and filament losses have intensified. Polyester staple fiber has accumulated inventory for six consecutive weeks to 7.4 days. Polyester factories continue to introduce plans to reduce load and production, and the load cannot be maintained above 90%. The converted inventory of polyester raw material PTA fell slightly last week; ethylene glycol port inventory is about to expand, the arrival volume is still high, and shipments are neutral. The expectation of accumulation of funds still exists, and the increase driven by funds last week may be difficult to maintain.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices fluctuated last week. As of Friday, it was 3,485 yuan/ton. The main processing gap of TA disk narrowed last week and was 608 as of Friday. Hengli 5#’s second line of 1.25 million tons has been put into production and the overall 2.5 million tons unit is operating at 90% load. The supply increase is increasing under the new production capacity base. The PX-NPT spread recovered slightly last week to $165.
Ethylene glycol:
Ethylene glycol port inventory for July 13The latest inventory shows a slight accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 13, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.483 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 13 to July 19, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 268,000 tons, which is still a relatively high level. Port storage capacity problems may lead to a slow increase in explicit inventory. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and the accumulation of explicit inventory slows down.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Material Market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) basically showed a downward trend last week, falling to 379 on Friday USD/ton. The U.S. crude oil 09 contract made a slight correction last week, with a weekly decline of only 0.12%, closing at around $41. The trend of Brent oil 09 contract is basically the same as that of U.S. oil, with a weekly decline of only 0.16%, closing above $43. The overall trend of crude oil in the external market is volatile. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil narrowed significantly last week overall, narrowing to US$62 by Friday; the price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil changed in line with the NPT-Brent price difference, narrowing to US$81 by Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated during the week and rose to $544/ton on Friday. The PX-NPT spread recovered slightly last week and stood at $165 as of Friday.
PX Asia’s operating rate rebounded slightly last week, rising 1.38% from the previous period to 76%; PX China’s operating rate rebounded sharply by 2.9% from last week to 84.10%.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose during the week, rising to 3,475 yuan on Friday. The average price during the week was about 3,461 yuan, which remained stable compared with last week. The equivalent coal-based contract price was about 3,261-3,311 yuan. The chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3,200 yuan/ton. The losses of coal-based ethylene glycol have intensified for six consecutive weeks, with the highest regional losses reaching around -1,400 yuan. Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia remain stable at US$800/ton. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol decreased to around -$109. The cash flow loss from naphtha to ethylene glycol decreased to around -$40/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route decreased slightly to about -1032 yuan/ton. All ethylene glycol process lines suffered comprehensive losses, but the losses eased month-on-month.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Starting from July 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 61.1 million tons. The new equipment includes: Shenghong 250,000 tons ( filament), Yisheng 250,000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100,000 tons (short fiber), and Yihua 200,000 tons (short fiber). Recently, some devices have begun to reduce production, while new devices are still being put into production. The polyester load has been moderately reduced. As of last Friday, the polyester load was at 90.9%. Polyester production and sales last week remained light for the other days except for the production and sales rate which reached 100% due to FDY price reduction promotion in mid-week.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA Domestic Devices—As Hengli’s Phase 5 2.5 million-ton PTA device was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. The second 1.25 million-ton unit of Hengli 5#’s new 2.5-million-ton unit was put into operation last weekend, and the current load of the 2.5-million-ton unit is 90%.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol plant: The load of coal-to-ethylene glycol plant continues to increase, and the comprehensive operating rate rebounds slightly. As of July 16, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 59.34%. Among them, the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 44.38%.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Commissioning status of new devices: The first 200,000-ton unit of Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000-ton coal-to-ethylene glycol unit and the 400,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are already under trial operation stage, it is expected to be supplied to the market from July to August. Sinochem Quanzhou’s 500,000-ton/year MEG new device reverse drive test plan has been postponed to around the end of August.
2PTA inventory
PTA factory inventory It has remained stable at 5.5 days for seven consecutive weeks. The inventory of PTA raw materials in polyester factories has remained stable at 10 days for three consecutive weeks. PTA’s converted social total inventory actually calculates the total of PTA inventory and polyester product inventory, which is slightly lower than last week. Last week, PTA raw material inventory was slightly destocked, and polyester finished product inventory was slightly accumulated. This is actually a transfer of inventory. . Absolute inventories are still at their highest levels over the same period in the past four years.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
The latest inventory of ethylene glycol ports on July 13 showed a slight accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 13, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.483 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 13 to July 19, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 268,000 tons, which is still a relatively high level. Arrivals have declined for two consecutive weeks—perhaps related to an increase in maintenance of overseas installations. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have been neutral recently, with the average daily average being around 12,000 tons/day. Port storage capacity problems may lead to a slow increase in explicit inventory. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, resulting in serious port delays and a slowdown in explicit inventory accumulation.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
Polyester continuous two A large number of maintenance plans were announced every week, and the overall load began to decrease last week, reaching 90.90% on Friday, still the second-lowest level just below the 2018 level. Among them, the operating rate of polyester filament dropped sharply by 1.8% to 75.20% from the previous period, marking the second consecutive week of load decline; the load of polyester bottle flakes rebounded slightly by 0.3% to 77.60%; the operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple remained at 94.30% of last week’s level. . The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn is still the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament is still the second lowest level only higher than the same period in 2016; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes is still the lowest level in the same period in history.
1.2 Polyester Inventory
Downstream Polyester product inventory changes: Only FDY of polyester filament has been destocked slightly: POY has been destocked significantly from 1.8 days to 20.7 days, FDY has been destocked slightly from 1.5 days to 17.8 days, and DTY has been destocked significantly from 2 days to 31.6 days. Polyester staple fiber has accumulated inventory for six consecutive weeks. The current inventory is 7.4 days, an increase of 1.4 days compared with the previous period. Inventories of polyester bottle flakes remain above last week’s 20-day inventory level. Polyester staple fiber inventories have rebounded to the highest level for the same period in the past; polyester filament and polyester bottle flake inventories have maintained the highest levels for the same period in the past. As of last week: Polyester product inventories have rebounded to the highest level in the same period in previous years, and inventory pressure is obvious.
2 terminal situation
Last week The loom and texturing starts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 53% and 69% respectively. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped sharply by 9%, still the lowest level in the same period in the past. Among them, the Jiapu area of Changxing Market was too late to drain water and caused backflow. The reclaimed water reuse station was closed, which greatly affected the operation of water spraying and printing and dyeing plants and the transportation of goods. . The comprehensive texturing operating rate fell slightly by 3%, the lowest level in the same period in history. During the week, FDY was heavily promoted at a loss, and terminal purchases followed suit slightly. Only on Wednesday, some transactions were slightly increased, and the production and sales rate reached 100%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area have risen again since 5.25 days, and are currently 44.5 days, which is the highest level in the same period in the past. This year’s off-season has been affected by the epidemic. Under the influence, the inventory of gray fabrics started to accumulate earlier than in previous years, and inventory began to accumulate continuously at the end of May (in previous years, gray fabric inventory did not begin to accumulate until at least late June to early July). Against the background of the off-season, gray fabric inventories are still expected to continue to accumulate. The transaction volume of China Textile City started in late June and was not much different from the same period in previous years. This was mainly because the terminals were in the off-season during this period and the transactions were light. In the second half of the year, peak season demand for the Gold, September, and Silver Octobers may begin to be reflected in mid-August. There is also a risk of delays or a sluggish peak season. Pay attention to the development of the epidemic.
, gray cloth inventory is still expected to continue to accumulate. The transaction volume of China Textile City started in late June and was not much different from the same period in previous years. This was mainly because the terminals were in the off-season during this period and the transactions were light. In the second half of the year, peak season demand for the Gold, September, and Silver Octobers may begin to be reflected in mid-August. There is also a risk of delays or a sluggish peak season. Pay attention to the development of the epidemic.
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