Overview:
U.S. crude oil The price of the 09 contract broke through upward last week, with a weekly increase of 1.4% and closing above $41. The weekly increase of the Brent Oil 09 contract was 0.74%, closing above US$43. The overall crude oil price in the external market fluctuated, and the center of gravity slowly moved upward. The main contract of domestic SC crude oil in 2009 fell by 1.63% on a weekly basis, and continued to fall in the trading on Friday night. The trends of internal and external markets are obviously divided.
Overseas epidemics are still recurring. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 4.2725 million, with nearly 150,000 deaths, and more than 70,000 new diagnoses in a single day. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 234,900.
The weaving operating rate rebounded to around 80% due to the load in the Jiapu area of Changxing Market, the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose sharply to 64%, and the texturing operating rate rebounded slightly to 74%. Last week, due to the restart of Yuanfang’s 400,000-ton unit, the polyester load was not expected to decrease. By Friday, the load rebounded to 91.50%. Polyester products were significantly destocked last week, and the inventory pressure was eased.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices fluctuated slightly last week It rose to 3,490 yuan/ton on Friday. The main processing difference of TA disk fluctuated and widened this week, reaching 673 as of Friday. The spot processing difference has been significantly reduced to less than 600. The PX-NPT spread narrowed slightly last week to $151.
Ethylene glycol:
As of July 20, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.514 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 20 to July 26, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 205,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Arrival forecasts have declined for three consecutive weeks – related to increased maintenance of overseas installations. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have increased recently. The average daily shipment volume of the two ports in the past seven days has been about 13,000 tons/day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are serious.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) basically showed an upward trend last week and rose to US$398/ton by Friday. The price of the U.S. crude oil 09 contract broke through upward last week, with a weekly increase of 1.4% and closing above $41. The weekly increase of the Brent Oil 09 contract was 0.74%, closing above US$43. The overall crude oil price in the external market fluctuated, and the center of gravity slowly moved upward. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil has widened slightly this week as a whole compared with last week, reaching around US$79 by Friday; the price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil has widened to around US$95 by Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated during the week and rose to $549/ton on Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at low levels, reaching $151 as of Friday. PX Asia’s operating rate and PX China’s operating rate were basically stable compared with last week.
2 Changes in costs and profits
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply during the week, rising to 3,600 yuan on Friday, and the average price during the week was approximately 2,546 yuan. The price center of gravity has moved up significantly by 85 yuan compared with last week, which is equivalent to a coal contract price of approximately 3346-3396 yuan. The chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3250 yuan/ton. Coal-to-ethylene glycol losses ended six consecutive weeks of intensification. The losses were slightly restored last week, with the highest regional losses around -1,300 yuan. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol decreased slightly to around -$102. The cash flow loss from naphtha to ethylene glycol increased to around -$52/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has significantly recovered to about -863 yuan/ton. All ethylene glycol process lines suffered comprehensive losses, but the losses continued to ease month-on-month.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Starting from July 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 61.1 million tons. The new equipment includes: Shenghong 250,000 tons ( filament), Yisheng 250,000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100,000 tons (short fiber), and Yihua 200,000 tons (short fiber). Yuanfang’s 400,000-ton unit, which was shut down in the early stage in late July, has restarted, and new units are still being put into operation. The polyester load has rebounded slightly, and as of last Friday, the polyester load was at 91.50%. Polyester production and sales performed relatively optimistically last week, and transactions were acceptable.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research So
PTA domestic device – As Hengli Phase 5 2.5 million tons PTA device was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit was temporarily shut down for one day on Friday and is expected to restart on Saturday. Maintenance is planned for two weeks in early August.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: The load and comprehensive operating rate of the coal-to-ethylene glycol unit decreased slightly. As of July 23, domestic B2C��The overall operating load is 58.54%. Among them, the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 41.72%.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
New unit production status: Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000-ton coal-to-ethylene glycol unit is expected to start feeding methanol this week, and the start-up of the ethylene glycol link is expected to be postponed to mid-to-late August. . Sinochem Quanzhou’s 500,000-ton/year MEG new device reverse drive test plan has been postponed to around the end of August.
2PTA inventory
PTA factory inventory It has remained stable at 5.5 days for eight consecutive weeks. The inventory of PTA raw materials in polyester factories has been stable at 10 days for four consecutive weeks. PTA-converted total social inventory dropped sharply from last week – last week’s decrease was mainly due to finished product inventory, that is, polyester was destocked by a large margin last week. The absolute inventory of PTA is still at the highest level in the same period in the past four years.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
The latest ethylene glycol port inventory on July 20 showed a significant accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 20, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.514 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 20 to July 26, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 205,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Arrival forecasts have declined for three consecutive weeks – related to increased maintenance of overseas installations. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have increased recently. The average daily shipment volume of the two ports in the past seven days has been about 13,000 tons/day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are serious.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
There was no new maintenance plan for polyester last week Announcement, and the load reduction expectations have not been realized. Due to the restart of Fartex’s 400,000-ton unit, the overall load increased to 91.50%, which is still the second-lowest level only lower than the 2018 level. Among them, the polyester filament operating rate has basically remained stable, rising slightly by 0.1% to 75.3%; the polyester bottle flake load has rebounded slightly by 0.3% to 77.90%, which is the second consecutive week of recovery; the direct spinning polyester staple operating rate has remained stable at 94.30 for three consecutive weeks. %. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn is still the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament is basically the lowest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to the second-lowest level only higher than in 2019.
1.2 Polyester inventory
As of Last Friday, the average inventories of polyester POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 17.5 days, 16.3 days and 29.4 days respectively, down 3.2 days, 1.5 days and 2.2 days respectively from last Friday. Polyester staple fiber ended six consecutive weeks of accumulated inventory. Last week, the inventory dropped to 5.2 days, a sharp decrease of 2.2 days from the previous period. The inventory of polyester bottle flakes dropped slightly to around 15-20 days. Polyester staple fiber inventories have fallen back to the equilibrium level for the same period in previous years; polyester filament and polyester bottle flake inventories have maintained their highest levels for the same period over the past years. The inventory pressure on polyester products eased last week.
2 terminal situation
Last week The overall production of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has improved. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 64% and 74% respectively. The looms in the Jiapu area of Changxing that were affected by water backflow last week have recovered significantly, and the Changxing area has recovered to around 80%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area have been rising continuously since 5.25 days, and are currently 45 days, which is the highest level in the same period in the past. This year’s off-season has been affected by the epidemic The epidemic came earlier than in previous years, and inventories began to accumulate continuously at the end of May (in previous years, gray fabric inventories did not begin to accumulate until at least late June to early July). Against the background of the off-season, gray fabric inventories are still expected to continue to accumulate. The transaction volume of China Textile City began to be better than the same period in previous years in late July. Pay attention to whether the volume preference is sustainable. </p
