According to feedback from cotton traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou and other places, since mid-to-late July, the main ICE cotton futures contract has been consolidating at a high level of 62-65 cents/pound, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has narrowed, and the port The adjustment of the basis of bonded and customs-cleared foreign cotton has little impact (the basis of US cotton remains strong, and the basis differences of Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, etc. are also significantly lower than expected), and the foreign cotton at the port shows “more warehousing, shipments” “less” state, port storage pressure bottomed out.
An international cotton company in Huangdao stated that from a statistical point of view, China shipped a total of 205,844 tons of 2019/20 US cotton from April 17 to July 2, of which the loading volume in the four weeks of June was 2.8 10,000 tons, 29,600 tons, 23,400 tons, 25,500 tons are not small. The quotations of US cotton not only increased sharply with ICE, but also traders refused to lower the basis. Therefore, the port cotton inventory continued to grow in July/August. As expected. Furthermore, cotton textile companies and traders generally judge that there is little hope of issuing additional import quotas with sliding tariffs in 2020, so they need to reserve part of the quota to purchase Australian cotton in 2020 and Brazilian cotton in 2020/21 with shipping schedules from September to December.
According to the inventory statistics and estimates of several international cotton merchants and large import companies, as of the end of July, bonded + non-bonded cotton stocks in China’s main ports have once again reached 580,000-600,000 tons (about to exceed 580,000 tons). 600,000 tons is the consensus in the industry), and US cotton, Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, Australian cotton (including 2020 new cotton), West African cotton, etc. rank high. The specific calculations are as follows: 1. The total foreign cotton inventory in Qingdao Port and around Weifang, Zibo, and Jinan is about 350,000-360,000 tons, of which about 320,000-330,000 tons are in Qingdao Port (Huangdao, Jiaozhou, Jiaonan); 2. Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin, etc. The total foreign cotton inventory in the surrounding area is about 120,000-130,000 tons, of which Zhangjiagang port inventory is about 105,000-110,000 tons; 3. Bonded + non-bonded cotton in Shanghai, Ningbo, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Tianjin and other ports is about 100,000-110,000 tons (due to investigation The sample is limited and there may be some discrepancies in this data). </p
