In the first half of this year, facing the test of the epidemic, the textile industry showed strong resilience and leveraged its production capacity advantages to promote export growth.
The COVID-19 epidemic has swept across the world and has had a major impact on the economic and trade patterns of countries around the world, disrupting It has improved the rhythm of my textile and clothing import and export. In the first quarter, we mainly encountered domestic production shutdowns, personnel isolation and poor logistics. In the second quarter, we continued to face the risk of order cancellations and reductions. Production and exports once experienced a sharp decline. The stable and strong textile and apparel industry chain formed over the years, Supply chains have been severely tested.
Situation Overview
In the context of the country’s series of policy measures to stabilize foreign trade With the help, since the second quarter, the vitality of the domestic market has been stimulated, business confidence has gradually recovered, and the national trade in goods has stabilized. In June, imports and exports stopped falling and turned up, achieving growth for the first time this year. Textile and apparel exports fell by 17.7% in the first quarter, but rebounded rapidly in the second quarter, growing by 19.2%. This was mainly driven by textile anti-epidemic materials. In the first half of the year, the cumulative export of anti-epidemic materials reached US$38.7 billion, accounting for 30.4% of total exports. In just a few months, China’s textile industry was able to quickly adjust its production strategy, achieve upstream and downstream matching, produce and convert a large number of epidemic prevention materials to meet the concentrated and large global demand, which once again confirms the advantages of China’s textile and apparel industry in production and supply. .
Negative factors such as the epidemic will not diminish in the second half of the year, and exports will still face many pressures.
The current epidemic is not over yet, and has the potential to coexist with mankind for a long time. The political and economic decisions of countries around the world will inevitably revolve around the epidemic. The epidemic will still affect foreign trade in the second half of the year. The biggest uncertainty factor in development has caused the external environment faced by China’s foreign trade to become generally severe and complex, and exports will face more and newer challenges: global economic integration is blocked, and the trends of unilateralization and regionalization are becoming increasingly prominent; normal economic and trade Business exchanges and exhibitions will be restricted for a long period of time; consumption in major markets is sluggish, brand store bankruptcies and closures are frequent, and inventory backlogs are serious. Factors such as this will inevitably lead to a significant improvement in the sales of traditional bulk commodities. Preliminary predictions indicate that the order situation in the autumn will be difficult to improve, and bulk commodity exports will still decline in the third quarter. Exports of anti-epidemic materials will still maintain a high scale, but the growth rate will slow down. Based on comprehensive judgment, there is insufficient room for export growth in the third and fourth quarters, and there is still great pressure to stabilize and rebound throughout the year.
To alleviate the crisis and provide relief, policies have been launched to help enterprises overcome difficulties.
In the face of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to it, made scientific decisions, and made strict arrangements to quickly stop the spread of the epidemic. In order to ensure production and foreign trade exports, various ministries and commissions and local government departments have been organized to introduce a series of policies and measures to steadily promote the resumption of work and production, stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign investment, and promote consumption. Provide precise assistance to enterprises in terms of smoothing foreign trade transportation channels, reducing logistics costs in the import and export links, reducing taxes and fees, facilitating tax refunds, supporting the development of new foreign trade formats and models, strengthening export credit insurance, supporting export products to be sold domestically, and promoting employment. help. In view of the current situation of limited personnel exchanges and the inability to hold physical exhibitions, we have used the situation of holding the online Canton Fair, promoting online live broadcasts and cloud exhibitions to help companies seize business opportunities and reduce exhibition costs. The State Council issued implementation opinions to support the conversion of exports to domestic sales to help enterprises explore the domestic market and build a new development pattern in which domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.
In the face of problems existing in the second half of the year, the industry calls for: It is recommended that the country further introduce specific assistance measures to stabilize the basic foreign trade market, provide financing channels for the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises, and lower financing thresholds and cost. Promote market diversification and accelerate cooperative development with countries along the “Belt and Road”. Further optimize the business environment, improve the level of trade facilitation, and speed up customs clearance of export commodities. Strengthen the standardized management and taxation system of the domestic sales market, and provide financial support for enterprises to actively participate in cross-border e-commerce sales and participate in online exhibitions. It is hoped that textile and apparel exports in the second half of the year can achieve better-than-expected results under the protection of national policies.
Trade data
In June, the total import and export value of national trade in goods was US$380.73 billion, year-on-year. (the same below) increased by 1.5%, of which exports were US$213.57 billion, an increase of 0.5%, and imports were US$167.15 billion, an increase of 2.7%. The trade surplus for the month was US$46.42 billion. From January to June, the total import and export value was US$2,029.69 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year, of which exports were US$1,098.75 billion, down 6.2%, and imports were US$930.95 billion, down 7.1%, achieving a cumulative surplus of US$167.8 billion.
In June, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$31.17 billion, an increase of 17%. Among them, exports were US$29.42 billion, an increase of 19.4%, and imports were US$1.74 billion, a decrease of 12.9%. The trade surplus for the month was US$27.68 billion, an increase of 22.2%. From January to June 2020, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$138.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Among them, exports were US$127.33 billion, an increase of 2.5%; imports were US$10.96 billion, a decrease of 9.4%, and the cumulative trade surplus was US$116.37 billion, an increase of 3.7%.
Trade Characteristics
Textile and apparel import and export in the first half of 2020 The following characteristics:
1. The epidemic is the most important factor affecting textile and apparel exports in the first half of the year.
In the first half of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic disrupted the rhythm of China’s textile and apparel foreign trade and became the main factor leading to export fluctuations. In the first two months, domestic productiondata-preview-src=”” data-preview-group=”1″ src=”http://pic.168tex.com/Upload/News/image/2020/08/14/20200814090700235008.jpg”>
5. There are obvious differences in the exports of key provinces and cities, with Beijing and Hubei continuing to lead in growth.
In the first half of the year, the top ten exporting provinces and cities were: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei, Beijing, Anhui and Guangxi. The total export volume accounts for nearly 90% of total exports. Among them, the cumulative exports of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangxi declined, while the other six provinces and cities all achieved growth, with the growth rates of Hubei and Beijing reaching 129% and 263% respectively.
6. Imports of bulk commodities continue to decline.
In the first half of the year, textile and clothing imports showed an overall downward trend. Only in February and March were there significant increases in imports driven by epidemic prevention materials. After the domestic epidemic stabilized, imports increased significantly in April to June. There have been consecutive double-digit declines in the past month. Imports of bulk commodities continued to decline, with cumulative imports of yarn and fabrics falling by 25.4% and 32.6% respectively, and needle and woven garments falling by 9.6% in total. The decline was mainly driven by import volume. The import volume of the three major categories of commodities fell by 17.3%, 35.8% and 16.2% respectively. The average import price only decreased for yarn, while fabrics and clothing maintained growth.
7. Cotton imports fell by more than 20% in the first half of the year, and domestic and foreign cotton prices were inverted.
In June, cotton imports rebounded slightly, with 90,000 tons imported that month, an increase of nearly 30% from May, but a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%, still at a low level. Affected by sluggish demand in the downstream market, cotton imports fell sharply in the first half of the year, with a total of 899,000 tons imported, a decrease of 23.8%. Since the signing of the first-phase economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, China has fully and strictly implemented the agreement, and cotton imports from the United States have continued to rebound rapidly. In the first half of the year, a total of 293,000 tons were imported from the United States, an increase of 20.5%. The import volume from April to June exceeded that of Brazil, once again becoming China’s largest source of cotton imports.
China Cotton Association analyzed that in June, my country’s economy was running smoothly, and the 2020 central reserve cotton rotation policy was released at the end of the month. However, the textile market entered the traditional off-season, and spot transactions slowed down. The price increased slightly; affected by multiple factors such as the rebound of the epidemic in some foreign countries and the announcement by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that the actual sown area of U.S. cotton decreased by 11.3% in 2020/21, international cotton prices fluctuated frequently and prices were higher than domestic prices. At the end of the month, China’s cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 11,866 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan from the end of the previous month; the monthly average price was 11,958 yuan/ton, an increase of 314 yuan month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 2,189 yuan. China’s imported cotton price index FC Index M averaged 68.34 cents/pound in monthly terms, up 0.56 cents from the previous month. At the end of the month, it was 67.84 cents/pound, higher than the 1.58 cents/pound at the end of the previous month. The 1% tariff discount was RMB 11,883/ton, which was RMB 17 higher than the domestic spot price in the same period. Domestic and domestic cotton prices were inverted.
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