Overview:
U.S. crude oil The 10 contract rebounded slightly last week, with a weekly increase of 1.61%, closing at $42.93. The Brent 11 contract rebounded sharply last week, with a greater increase than that of U.S. oil. The weekly increase was 2.66%, closing at $45.94. Crude oil may have several slight corrections in the external market, and the overall trend will fluctuate upward. The main domestic SC crude oil 10 contract rose sharply during the week, with a weekly increase of 2.55%. It continued to rise by 0.41% in night trading, and the internal market was stronger last week. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 6.14 million as of the reporting period, the number of deaths stabilized at 186,900, and the number of new cases in a single day continued to fall below 50,000. The epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 384,700. The single-day increase fluctuates greatly, and it was still above 40,000 on August 29. The epidemic in India is on the rise, with more than 70,000 new cases reported in a single day. The cumulative number of confirmed cases ranks third in the world.
Due to the drop in high temperatures, some orders for home textiles were relatively good, and the weaving operating rate partially recovered last week. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose slightly to 75%, and the texturing operating rate rose slightly to 79%. The polyester plant continued to be put into operation, and the load fluctuated from high to high. As of last Friday, the load rose to 91.50%, and product inventories were differentiated.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA rose first last week It then fell, falling to 3,510 yuan/ton last Friday. Polyester continues to be put into production, and the load fluctuates and rises at a high level. The PTA load dropped sharply last week to 83.80%. The main processing gap on the TA disk first narrowed during the week and then widened significantly last Friday, reaching 919 on Friday. TA’s spot processing margin narrowed slightly to 652 yuan last Tuesday and then continued to widen to 727 in the second half of the week. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $130 as of last Friday.
Ethylene glycol:
As of August 24, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.455 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 24 to August 30, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 231,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Overseas maintenance plans will be carried out from August to November. Under the influence of the hurricane in the United States, the amount of overseas maintenance has increased significantly. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area have improved significantly recently. The difference between actual arrivals and forecast arrivals has narrowed, and port delays have eased. I might go to the library again this week.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Materials Market
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1.1 crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) rose to 416.5 US dollars / ton, and fell sharply again to 405 US dollars / ton last Friday. The U.S. crude oil 10 contract rebounded slightly last week, with a weekly increase of 1.61%, closing at $42.93. The Brent 11 contract rebounded sharply last week, with a greater increase than that of U.S. oil. The weekly increase was 2.66%, closing at $45.94. Crude oil may have several slight corrections in the external market, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil widened to US$84 during the week, and narrowed sharply again to around US$74 last Friday. The price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil showed a similar trend, widening significantly during the week to US$99, and narrowed sharply again last Friday. narrowed below $90. The price of PX (cfr China) fell sharply after rising to US$553 during the week, falling to US$535/ton on Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $130 as of last Friday. PX Asia’s operating rate and PX China’s operating rate both increased slightly from the previous week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose slightly last week to 3,768 yuan last Friday. The average price during the week was about 3,743 yuan, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the price center last week, which is equivalent to coal The contract price is approximately 3543-3593 yuan, and the chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3450 yuan/ton. The load of coal production has rebounded sharply for two consecutive weeks, and the loss of coal-to-ethylene glycol has basically remained the same week-on-week. According to research, the current average coal production cost is 3700-3800, and the actual loss is less than the formula calculation. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol worsened again to around -$24. The cash flow loss from naphtha to ethylene glycol worsened again to around -$26/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route sharply increased to above -900 at the beginning of last week, and recovered slightly during the week, reaching around -885 yuan/ton by last Friday. All ethylene glycol process lines are still experiencing comprehensive losses, and the continued recovery of coal-based profits has triggered the restart of the device.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Starting from August 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 61.6 million tons. Baihong 250,000 tons (Quanzhou, Fujian, supporting the production of industrial yarn grade chips), Hengyi New Materials (Haining, Zhejiang, supporting the production of civilian filament) 250,000 tons equipment. Last week, Shaoxing Jiabao’s 400,000-ton production capacity was restarted, and products were released on the 30th. The device mainly produces polyester filament and chips. As of last Thursday, the polyester load increased to 91.2%.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research So
PTA domestic devices: Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million-ton unit started operating at 8.25 and dropped to 50% operation, and is expected to resume around 9.10; Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000-ton unit started operating around 8.25, and is expected to be overhauled for 3 days. It is not yet available. Products are produced; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million-ton unit was temporarily shut down on August 27 for some reason, and maintenance is expected to take 2-3 days; Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit was restarted near last Thursday and is currently operating normally. Mainland China’s PTA load dropped significantly last Thursday to 83.8% from the previous week.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol equipment: The overall load of ethylene glycol and the start-up of coal-based equipment both rebounded significantly last week. As of August 27, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 59.12%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 39.47%. A 700,000-ton/year MEG device in the United States was shut down for an extended period of time due to the hurricane. The shutdown time is expected to be 2-4 weeks. The device was shut down on the morning of the 26th. It was originally expected to only stop until around the weekend. If it is now stopped for 2-4 weeks, another 340,000-280,000 tons of equipment may also be delayed in restarting due to hurricanes. MEG imported from North America basically accounts for 20%. North America has a total production capacity of 3.36 million tons, and 700,000 tons of equipment basically accounts for 20%, so the impact is around 4%. The impact will last from half a month to one month, and it is expected that the arrival volume will be delayed by one month.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Commissioning status of new equipment: The 200,000-ton syngas to ethylene glycol line of Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000-ton/year Shihutan project successfully produced polyethylene glycol on August 24. The ester grade ethylene glycol product marks that the project has successfully completed the entire process and entered the production and operation stage. Sinochem Quanzhou’s new 500,000-ton/year MEG device is scheduled to be put into operation on August 30. Shanxi Woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.’s new 300,000-ton/year syngas-to-MEG device has successfully produced by-products, and the process is about to be completed.
2PTA Inventory
PTA Conversion Society The total inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks and dropped slightly last week – PTA factory inventory has rebounded significantly, warehouse receipts have continued to decline, polyester factory raw material inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and TA inventory converted from polyester finished product inventory has dropped significantly – —In fact, the finished product is removed from the warehouse.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
The latest inventory of ethylene glycol ports on August 24 showed that it was basically stable compared with the previous period. As of August 24, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.454 million tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 24 to August 30, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 231,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area have picked up significantly recently, and the pressure on port inventory has eased. The difference between actual arrivals and planned arrivals has narrowed, and port stagnation has eased. It is expected that port inventories may be depleted again.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
From August, polyester production capacity will be adjusted to 61.6 million tons/year. As of last Friday, the polyester load increased to 91.5%. It remains the second-highest level just below 2019 levels. Among them, the load of polyester filament remained stable at 75.10%; the load of polyester bottle flakes rebounded slightly by 0.3% to 80.50%, and the operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple remained stable at 95.10%. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn is still the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament is still the lowest level in the same period since 2017; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to near the equilibrium level.
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of Last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 16.7, 19 and 30.6 days respectively. Filament inventories have declined except for DTY. Among them, POY inventories have dropped significantly by 2.2 days from last Friday; FDY inventories have fallen by 1.3 days from last Friday, and DTY inventories have increased by 0.8 days from last week. Polyester staple fiber inventories basically increased by 1.2 days to 5.6 days last week from the previous week. The inventory of polyester bottle flakes has basically remained at a level above 20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber is the highest level in the same period since 2017; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle flakes both maintain the highest level in the same period in previous years.
2 Terminal situation
Last week The operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially recovered. So far, the operating rates of looms and texturing are at 75% and 79% respectively. The high temperature has dropped, and some orders for home textiles are relatively good.
The number of days of gray cloth inventory in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze has continued to rise since 5.25, reaching a maximum of 45.5 days. It has now dropped to 45 days again. The inflection point of gray cloth inventory has yet to be confirmed. . The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in July was 8% higher than the same period last year. There was a sharp decline in August, and peak season performance has not yet been seen. We predict that the peak season in the second half of the year may be delayed, and the intensity of the peak season may be weaker than in previous years, or it may form a pulse, but the maximum transaction volume will be better than that in the first half of the year.
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Shengze Area The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises have continued to rise since 5.25, reaching a maximum of 45.5 days. Now they have dropped to 45 days again. The inflection point of gray fabric inventories needs to be confirmed. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in July was 8% higher than the same period last year. There was a sharp decline in August, and peak season performance has not yet been seen. We predict that the peak season in the second half of the year may be delayed, and the intensity of the peak season may be weaker than in previous years, or it may form a pulse, but the maximum transaction volume will be better than that in the first half of the year.
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