Market Profile
View Strategy
Last week, the main force of Brent oil rose by 1.59 (3.59%) to $15.94 per barrel. The TA2101 contract fell 28% (0.75%) to 3720 yuan/ton after rising high. The EG2101 contract rose 52 (1.34%) to 3946 yuan/ton. On the PTA supply side, Yangzi Petrochemical and Taipei Chemical’s units restarted discharging; Yadong Petrochemical’s unit was overhauled, and Reignwood Petrochemical’s load was reduced to 50%. Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical’s 700,000-ton PTA unit will be temporarily shut down starting from the evening of August 24, and is planned to be temporarily shut down. 3 days. The average load of PTA during the start-up week increased by 0.36% to 86.86%, and PTA inventory remained basically unchanged from the previous week at around 3.43 million tons. As September futures warehouse receipts are facing concentrated cancellation, PTA futures warehouse receipts fell by 47,200 tons to 718,700 tons last week. The reduced warehouse receipts flowed into the spot market. PTA processing fees can still be maintained at around 650 yuan/ton. Naphtha – The PX spread was further compressed to the $145/ton line.
At the downstream polyester end, the filament load remained at 82.60% during startup, while the short fiber load increased by 0.56% to 95.10%. Total polyester load rose 0.18% to 91.08%. Polyester end stocks decreased slightly, with POY falling by 1.18 days to 17.08 days, FDY falling by 0.68 days to 19.16 days, and polyester staple fiber rising by 1.12 days to 5.42 days. There is no significant improvement in the production and sales of terminal textile products. Polyester products, mainly POY, are less profitable. PTA may maintain a range-bound trend.
In terms of ethylene glycol, port inventory fell by 45,000 tons to 1.409 million tons, the fundamentals have improved slightly, and the futures-to-current basis has been restored, currently at 180 yuan/ton. nearby. As MEG prices gradually rise, the operating rate of coal-based EG has gradually recovered to the current 39.47% after hitting a historical low of 27.40%. The total MEG operating rate increased by 0.79% last week to 59.24%. The price restoration has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm for the start-up of coal-based equipment, and at the same time it has also limited the extent to which MEG prices can rise further. At a time when terminal consumption has not improved significantly, MEG may consider short selling on rallies.
Main risk points
The progress of the epidemic has triggered a sharp decline in downstream demand, which will compress raw material profits upward.
</p
