Recently, some small and medium-sized cotton textile mills and traders have reported that not only the inquiry and delivery of cotton gauze have slowed down significantly compared with before mid-November, but the inventory accumulation phenomenon has rebounded slightly, and the market prices of conventional cotton yarn and gray fabrics have also continued to fall. (High-end and bleached yarns are slightly more resistant to falls). Some yarn mills have no profits or even losses when spinning 21S-40S cotton yarns. On the one hand, the cost of stocked cotton yarn is high and financial expenses increase; on the other hand, companies are cautious in accepting orders, fearing that yarn prices will continue to fall and cotton gauze production will be stuck.
Currently, yarn mills in Hebei, Shandong, Hubei and other places are reducing production and planning to suspend production. Increased in November. Does the cotton mill still make a profit based on the local cotton spot price? Is it like what some cotton spinning mills have reported: “the more you sell, the more you lose, and the bigger the inventory, the more you lose”? The author takes C32S and JC40S cotton yarn as examples to calculate respectively (due to different raw material procurement periods, spinning loss and other expenses, it does not represent the entire industry):
First, C32S is equipped with non-bleached cotton yarn. The author takes 50% real estate cotton 3128/4128 + 50% Xinjiang cotton 4128B as an example. The direct spinning cost is about (14200~14300*50%+14600~14700*50%)*1.05+5800 Yuan/ton (processing fee, including all expenses such as water, electricity, workers’ wages, etc.) + 180 yuan/ton (financial cost for two months) = 21,100~21,200 yuan/ton (actual ex-factory cost of cotton spinning mill), depending on the distance from the sales area Different, generally calculated based on freight of 300-400 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of medium-sized C32S yarn in the coastal light textile market is about 21,400-21,600 yuan/ton. Judging from the quotation statistics of cotton yarn in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong markets, C32 mid-range yarn is about 21,200-21,500 yuan/ton. The cost of cotton yarn is basically the same as the sales price. It is difficult for the yarn mill to make a profit, but if the raw material uses cotton produced by the State Reserve. Or for raw materials purchased near the main contract of Zheng Cotton at 14,000 yuan/ton, the spinning mills can make more or less profits, but the space is relatively limited, and it is not easy to make no losses or less losses.
Second, take 50% 3128 grade 2019/20 Xinjiang cotton + 50% M 1 1/8 Brazilian cotton as an example (2020/21 Xinjiang cotton transfer warehouse The quantity is relatively small, and the purchase volume of mainland textile enterprises is very low). The ex-factory cost of JC40S is (14750~14850*50%+14800~15000*50%)*1.08+8000 yuan/ton (processing fee, including worker wages, water, electricity, and equipment All expenditures such as losses) + 200 yuan/ton (financial cost for two months) = 24150~24350 yuan/ton. The freight to the sales area in coastal areas is about 300-400 yuan/ton, so the comprehensive cost of JC40S in the light textile market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places is about 24,450-24,750 yuan/ton, and the current sales quotation of high-quality, packaged and bleached JC40S is generally 24,800-25,200 Yuan/ton, if textile companies control costs properly and speed up sales progress, the net profit of spinning JC40S and above cotton yarn is generally 300-500 yuan/ton, and production and sales are not upside down. Therefore, low-count yarn “makes money at a loss”, while high-count yarn is profitable but lacks sufficient order support. </p
