Overview:
External crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract increasing by 1.51% and the WTI 01 main contract increasing by 1.25%. The main contract of SC crude oil 2101 continued to rebound last week following the external market, with a maximum weekly increase of 2.35%.
The epidemic continues to break out in the United States. The United States added more than 210,000 new cases in a single day, setting a new high. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases reached 14.9834 million, with nearly 290,000 deaths. The epidemic situation in India and Brazil is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached nearly 9.6445 million. Pay attention to vaccine progress.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices fluctuated during the week and rose to 3,380 yuan/ton. The processing difference of TA disk in recent months has fluctuated and narrowed to 667. TA’s spot processing gap narrowed significantly to 467. Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2 million ton unit will be shut down on 10.5 and plans to restart around 12.10; Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million ton unit plans to be temporarily shut down for 2-3 days next week. Yadong and Sichuan Energy Investment restarted and increased their load to full capacity, and PTA’s domestic load increased significantly to 91.9%. Polyester load maintains stability at high levels.
As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 91.4%. The operating rates of looms, printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline, while the operating rates of texturing remained generally maintained. The operating rate of looms dropped to 83%, the operating rate of texturing remained at 93%, and the operating rate of dyeing plants dropped to 87%, which is still the highest level in the same period in history. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City was as expected in October. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year, with a significant month-on-month improvement. The transaction volume in November was acceptable, but the month-on-month decline was slight in early December. Polyester is still profitable. Crude oil continued to rebound slightly last week, with strong cost support. The PTA-PX spread fluctuated at a low level. Polyester load may decline significantly in the middle.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 3,800 yuan/ton; the price near coal-based ethylene glycol remained stable at 3,525 yuan /Ton. The main basis of EG2101 fluctuated widely, with the strongest during the week being -7, and as of last Friday it was -72. As of November 30, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.074 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 30 to December 6, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 98,000 tons, with arrivals continuing to be low. Accumulated inventory is expected to be postponed. The start-up of ethylene glycol coal-based equipment rebounded sharply last week. As of December 3, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.57%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 48.41%. Overseas: In December, 720,000 tons of equipment have been restarted and the load is being increased, and it is expected that 300,000 tons of equipment will be restarted this month. A new 828,000-ton equipment in South Asia (USA) is scheduled to be commissioned on December 10. The increase in overseas supply will be delayed.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) followed the sharp rise in crude oil last week, rising to US$428/ton on Friday. External crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract increasing by 1.51% and the main WTI 01 contract increasing by 1.25%. The naphtha-Brent spread widened significantly last week, reaching US$66 as of last Friday; the naphtha-WTI spread followed the same trend, reaching around US$88 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) continued to rise following crude oil last week, rising to US$570 as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread fluctuated at a low level last week, reaching US$162 as of last Friday. PX China’s operating rate remained stable compared with last week, and the Asian load increased slightly.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot price near coal production fell to 3,525 yuan/ton. The load of coal processing rebounded sharply to around 50% last week, and coal processing losses continued to intensify. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol continued to increase last week to -$150/ton. Naphtha to ethylene glycol remains at basic breakeven, with a small loss of about US$2 last week. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route recovered slightly to -1,725 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic equipment: Yangzi Petrochemical 350,000-ton unit 11.3 The 750,000-ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical will be inspected from 11.13 to 11.27, and is currently operating normally; the 1 million-ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment will be inspected from 11.17-11.23, and is currently operating normally; the 1.2 million-ton unit of Zhongtai Chemical will be shut down on 10.5, and is scheduled to be operated on 12.10 Restart nearby; Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons unit plans to be temporarily shut down for 2-3 days this week. PTA’s domestic load increased significantly to 91.9%.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol plant: 2020 Starting from December 2020, CCF MEG production capacity has been revised upward to 15.835 million tons, and the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity has been revised upward to 5.99 million tons. Henan Energy Yongcheng Phase II has added 200,000 tons and Xinjiang Tianye 600,000 tons. As of December 3, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.57%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 48.41%. Sinopec Wuhan’s 280,000-ton unit was shut down for maintenance for 2 months on 10.15; Henan Yongcheng’s 200,000-ton unit was temporarily shut down on 11.17; Xinhang Energy’s 400,000-ton unit restarted last weekend and the load is increasing; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit was started for maintenance on 11.20 30 days.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA Inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory continued to accumulate significantly last week, warehouse receipts continued to rise sharply, PTA factory inventory continued to rise, and polyester factory raw material inventories continued to rise slightly.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of November 30, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is approximately 107.4 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons compared with the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 30 to December 6, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 98,000 tons, with arrivals continuing to be low. Accumulated inventory is expected to be postponed.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
The polyester plant continues to be put into operation. From December 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity has been revised upward to 63.2 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun and 300,000 tons of Xinfengming. As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 91.4%. It is expected that the load will continue to remain high and stable in December.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 9, 11.7, and 13.6 days respectively. Filament continues to be destocked, and the loss of filament is around 200 yuan. Polyester staple fiber stocks continued to fall to -5 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains stable at more than 25 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level in the same period of the past year; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains at the highest level in the same period of the past year; the inventory of polyester filament is the second highest level in the same period of the past year.
2 Terminal Situation
Last week, the operating rates of looms and printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline, and texturing The overall start of construction is maintained. The operating rate of looms dropped to 83%, the operating rate of texturing remained at 93%, and the operating rate of dyeing plants dropped to 87%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area fell to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in the past. The China Textile City’s transaction volume in October was as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. Double Eleven transactions were almost not affected by the epidemic. However, there was no peak season in September this year, and the transaction volume in November was acceptable. There was a slight month-on-month decline in early December.
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