After a period of small fluctuations, Zheng Mian showed signs of upward breakthrough again, but whether the breakthrough can be successful this time is still doubtful. After all, in the off-season of supply and demand, it is difficult to have much illusions about the market. When the 01 and 05 contracts were moved and converted, the market fluctuations were obviously stronger, which was obviously affected by external market news. In the case of a bullish market in the mid-term, Zheng Mian’s start-up timing was very critical.
At present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is too large, and the gap between the two has always remained at around 2,000 yuan/ton, resulting in the delay in starting the rotation. Even so, the room for Zheng cotton to fall is limited, and the situation of strong external and weak in the short term There will be no fundamental changes.
When November’s macroeconomic data is about to be released, a series of leading indicators and data show an upward trend, showing that the domestic market is booming in supply and demand, and the economic recovery is stronger than expected. The industry predicts that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to reach More than 5.5%, the economy achieved positive growth throughout the year.
From a foreign perspective, although the epidemic continues to spread, with the advent of vaccines, it is difficult for the epidemic to spread at the same speed and scale as in the early stage. The probability of the epidemic bottoming out is now high. With the gradual resumption of production and business activities next year, funds and sentiment are expected to promote a wave of market prices in Zheng cotton. In addition, monetary easing policies will also largely lead to an increase in raw material prices. All of the above will support future commodity prices.
In the post-epidemic era, the rise and fall of the cotton market is inseparable from the fundamentals of supply and demand. With the recovery of global economic consumption, cotton consumption in the medium term is worth looking forward to. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand, and cotton prices will not rise easily. As for when to start the trend market, it depends on how funds are deployed. There is a high probability that it will not happen this year, and there will be The market will definitely exceed most people’s expectations, either the off-season will overdraw the market in advance, or the peak season will start later. </p
