Beginning in December, driven by the official put into operation of the new crown vaccine, the polyester market began to continue to rise, driven by international oil prices. In half a month, polyester filament prices have increased by nearly 600 yuan/ton. PTA and ethylene glycol have also increased to varying degrees. At the same time, gray cloth, fabric prices and dyeing fees have also increased to a certain extent.
The reason why most weaving factories keep raw materials in stock for more than 3 weeks: the start-up is gradually declining, and the inventory of gray fabrics is getting full again!
According to survey data, more than 50% of downstream factories have stocking inventories of 20-25 days, 30% of downstream factories have stockings of about 1 month, and a few less than 10% of downstream factories have stockings of about 1 month. Factories will stock up until 1-2 weeks after the Spring Festival, and downstream purchasing power is still strong.
Behind the vigorous purchase of goods by downstream weaving factories, there is a dilemma of the gradual decline in the start-up load of looms and the accumulation of gray fabric inventories again. According to According to survey data, as of December 17, the comprehensive start-up load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 77.43%, down 10.32 percentage points from the beginning of December. Among them, the start-up rate of water-jet looms in Shengze was 75.01%, down 9.04 percentage points from the beginning of this month. ;
The water-jet start-up load in Changxing area was 77.86%, down 12.09 percentage points from the beginning of this month;
The warp knitting start-up rate in Haining area At 87.95%, a slight decrease of 10.41 percentage points from the beginning of this month;
The warp knitting load in Changshu area is around 86.60%, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the beginning of this month;
The operating rate of circular knitting machines in Xiaoshao area is 71.97%, down 4.03 percentage points from the beginning of this month;
At the same time, as of December 17, the comprehensive gray fabrics in Shengze area The inventory days are around 42 days, an increase of about 2 days from the beginning of the month.
So looking at it from another perspective, the price increase of polyester filament is basically a one-sided cost support. There is no sign of improvement in terminal order demand. The procurement of weaving and texturing factories Except for a small amount of rigid needs, “speculative” purchases are basically the main ones.
It is true that downstream weaving factories purchased a large amount of goods under the premise that the overall loom load has declined and terminal demand has not recovered, which directly led to the saturation of raw material inventory supply in the weaving process. Most weaving factories The current inventory of raw materials has been at least 3 weeks, and considering that the loom startup will continue to decline in the later period, the current inventory of raw materials may maintain production for a longer period.
New strains of the epidemic emerge, and the UK implements the highest level of lockdown restrictions
Polyester raw materials and foreign trade orders are very high
At the same time, the previous increase in polyester filament is a correction in anticipation of a recovery in the future economic environment. The main driving force is the change in the prices of upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other products.
This change mainly comes from the new crown vaccine. Although the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the world has exceeded 20 million, as the United Kingdom, Russia, the United States and other countries have begun to vaccinate , market confidence began to gradually build up, and due to the global economic downturn, a lot of hot money in the market had nowhere to go, and began to speculate on bulk commodities, causing polyester raw materials including PTA and ethylene glycol to rise sharply.
However, the epidemic situation abroad has recently recurred:
According to overseas websites, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that the British capital London and southeast England The Ministry and parts of eastern England will implement the highest level “Level 4” lockdown restrictions from the morning of Sunday (20th). According to reports, the stricter restrictions announced in the short term are in response to the severe situation of rapid spread of the new coronavirus after mutation. The new variant of the virus is currently considered to be 70% more transmissible than the original strain. The British side said that the new variant may have spread to foreign countries, and the most urgent task at present is to ensure that the variant virus does not cause higher mortality.
Last week Germany “locked down” again, and this week the UK implemented the highest level of lockdown restrictions, bringing even worse news: the virus has mutated and is more contagious. It may increase by 70%, and the new variant may have spread abroad.
It is understood that some British people evacuated London before the lockdown. They swarmed out of the city, which is very likely to cause the virus to be imported to other areas. Whether the previously developed vaccine is effective against the variant We don’t know if the virus is still active. The mutation of the new coronavirus has caused market concerns. The blockade caused by the epidemic will directly lead to a decrease in transportation oil consumption, which will directly affect the demand for crude oil. Then the economy will drag down the demand for crude oil, which will once again have an impact on oil prices. Therefore, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on commodities has been most severely affected by the crude oil and refined oil markets.
The regional blockade caused by the mutation of the new coronavirus strain in the UK has once again hurt the demand for crude oil. The current impact on consumption is difficult to measure, but due to the experience of negative factors in the previous blockade , the market immediately responded significantly to this. On the afternoon of December 22, financial markets fell sharply across the board again, with crude oil prices bearing the brunt. The same news is a big negative for the textile market, and may even lead to the cancellation of spring and summer orders on hand again.
All in all, weaving factories are still buying intensively even though terminal demand has failed to pick up, which still poses certain concerns to polyester factories with currently low inventories. At the same time, we still need to pay attention to the outbreak of overseas epidemics, especially in Europe. News of the closure of cities in Germany and the United Kingdom has emerged, which has a negative impact on gatherings.�Raw materials may have a big negative impact, and at the same time, downstream textiles are likely to have order cancellations again in the spring and summer of next year. Companies need to control risks! </p
