Introduction: Since early November, the market focus of polyester bottle flakes has increased along with the cost side. Although production costs have increased, due to the outbreak of market speculative demand, the price of bottle flakes has become higher and higher, driving the profit margin of bottle flakes to continue to expand. . However, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, the attitude towards taking orders is not good, and the transactions are average.
After entering December, vaccine news is good for commodities, and international crude oil is strong. Funding parties took advantage of multiple good news to continue to push up PTA. The cost-end support is solid and powerful. Under the influence of speculators buying and selling polyester bottle flake factory inventories, high inventories are quickly digested. The factory has a stable mentality and actively raises its quotation. As of December 16, the price of water bottle grade polyester bottle flakes in the East China market has risen to 5,350 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period in November, the profit increased by 525 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.88%; the profit of bottle flakes was 219.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 76.55 yuan/ton compared with the same period in November, an increase of 53.66%.
Due to the off-peak season for terminal demand in the fourth quarter and the scarcity of new demand for soft drinks, most companies are consuming their original inventory near the end of the year. Therefore, the sustainability of the boost on the cost side is limited, and weak demand has led to restricted trading in the bottle flakes market. Some speculators’ contracts have expired and they are eager to take profits. Low-price supplies have gradually appeared in the market, and the market price of polyester bottle flakes has shown a downward trend.
Source: Longzhong Information
Comparison of data in the past three years (as shown in the picture above) , currently there is sufficient profit margin for polyester bottle flakes. In November 2020, the monthly average profit of polyester bottle flakes was 141.42 yuan/ton. In the same period of 2019, the profit value was -17.53 yuan/ton. In November 2018, the average profit of polyester bottle flakes was -70.92 yuan/ton. The main factors driving the improvement in bottle flake profits are: first, strong support from the cost side.
Secondly, for polyester bottle flakes and other plastic products, such as PE/PP/PVC, the growth rate is low, and the absolute price is at a historical low. The low prices attracted speculators to stock up on goods in large quantities, causing bottle flake factory inventories to decline in the fourth quarter. The pressure on factory inventories has eased, and there is a strong push for prices to rise. Finally, the market transaction atmosphere has improved, downstream processing companies with urgent needs are more willing to replenish goods, and transactions on the market have increased.
Polyester bottle flakes price and profit comparison chart:
Source: Longzhong Information
In late December, mutated viruses appeared in some overseas areas. The market was worried about demand, and international crude oil fell sharply. The price of polyester dual raw materials has declined. At present, the inventory pressure of bottle flake factories is average, and the probability of low-price shipments is small. However, due to financial pressure, some speculators began to have low-priced goods flowing out. Downstream demand performance continues to be sluggish, and the supply and demand game is sorting out. The bottle flakes market is in a dilemma. As of December 22, the profit of polyester bottle flakes in the East China market fell to around 135.70 yuan/ton.
New transactions between traditional traders and factories are blocked. It is expected that the short-term polyester bottle flakes spot market will focus on low-price negotiations, and it is difficult for prices to adjust significantly. Judging from the current profit outlook of bottle flakes, the compressible space is around 200 yuan/ton. If factory inventories accumulate or the epidemic worsens, there is still room for adjustment on this basis. In the later period, we will pay attention to changes in shipments from bottle flake factories and the start-up of downstream Spring Festival stocking needs. In the medium to long term, pay close attention to changes in raw material costs. </p
