In 2021, we need to be wary of global inflation in the process of turning from crisis to opportunity. After all, in the past year, although we have not gotten rid of the new coronavirus, commodities have surged. Will this trend continue? It continues to deserve attention. After all, the harm of inflation to the economy is obvious, and it is far more harmful than deflation.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2020, the national consumer price dropped by 0.5% year-on-year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.5% year-on-year. From January to November, the national consumer price increased by 2.7% compared with the same period last year. In November, industrial production recovered steadily, market demand continued to pick up, and industrial product prices continued to rise. From a month-on-month perspective, PPI increased by 0.5% from being flat last month. Both CPI and PPI have increased to a certain extent. This is only when the world is still in the most severe period of the epidemic. Once the global economy recovers from the epidemic in 2021, you can imagine the side effects of “releasing water”.
Another sign of inflation is that the global economy is in recession, but the prices of bulk raw materials are rising rapidly. Crude oil, the blood of industry, has risen to 50 US dollars per barrel. In the future, in the context of economic recovery, the market will continue to be bullish. . Recently, OPEC has just reached an agreement on crude oil production in February, and crude oil supply has declined slightly, causing prices to once again exceed $50 per barrel.
Looking at the global agricultural product market, the epidemic has caused a sharp rise in agricultural product prices. In fact, global agricultural product supply and demand are basically stable. The main reason is also inflation caused by “global central banks releasing water”. Today, Zheng cotton has exceeded 15,500 yuan/ton. From a technical point of view, the upward space has been opened. Looking at the historical data of cotton spinning, production and sales in 2020 are even lower than in 2019, but cotton prices are on the way to surpassing the previous high. Therefore, in 2021, we need to be wary of the speculation risks brought about by the market’s reliance on high inflation. </p
