After a year of wild price swings, hurricanes, droughts and overall social and economic hardship caused by the coronavirus pandemic, how will U.S. cotton growers think about growing cotton just a few months from now? ICE cotton prices did alleviate some concerns after they rebounded to more than 70 cents at the end of 2020, but the same rising prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and other food crops will certainly make cotton planting decisions difficult next season.
According to an initial survey by the US Cotton Farmers Magazine, the intended cotton planting area in the United States in 2021 is 11.611 million acres, while the actual sowing area last year was 12.185 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.
Of course, commodity prices will have a significant impact on the cotton planting area in the United States, but for American cotton farmers, they must also consider the decline in demand for cotton products and factory production caused by the epidemic. High U.S. and global ending inventories and export competition with Brazil and India will continue.
In addition, American cotton farmers must also consider China’s needs. In 2020, China imported a large amount of US cotton to fulfill the first phase of the China-US trade agreement. With the use of Xinjiang cotton restricted, the impact of U.S. cotton planting on China’s cotton imports in 2021 deserves attention. Weather-wise, 2021 will be a La Niña year, which generally means hotter and drier conditions in the southwestern United States, which are still trying to recover from the severe drought of 2020.
There is a lot to consider when making planting decisions this year. But as our survey results show year after year, cotton growers tend to grow what they know best – more cotton.
According to an analysis by the US “Cotton Farmers Magazine”, 2.29 million acres are expected to be planted in the southeastern region of the United States this year, except for a small area in Florida. Except for the increase, other regions experienced decreases. The central and southern regions are expected to plant 1.685 million acres, and overall the area in each state will decrease. Local agronomy experts in the United States said that if the prices of competing crops such as corn and soybeans continue to rise, the decline in cotton area may reach 20-30%. The area in the southwest region of the United States has also decreased year-on-year. Currently, drought is the biggest problem for Texas cotton planting. Although the La Nina climate will last until May this year, which may have an impact on cotton production, there is no other option for Texas planting except cotton. The western United States experienced the smallest decrease in area.
The cotton planting intention survey of the American “Cotton Farmers Magazine” started in November 2020 and ended in early December. Feedback was collected from cotton farmers, ginners, expert consultants and other industries channel. In February this year, the National Cotton Council (NCC) will release an intended area report, and at the end of March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release the official intended planting area. These forecasts will reflect the intended area at different time points. </p
