After New Year’s Day, the price of polyester staple fiber has stabilized at more than 6,000 yuan/ton; however, the futures market has declined in the past two days, but the spot market price has been very resilient; regarding future expectations, the collision of long and short news in the market is fierce; on the one hand, companies Equity inventory continues to be negative, and there are still many downstream orders until March. However, on the other hand, the pressure on raw material supply is expected to increase, and the spot processing fee space for short fiber has been significantly higher than that of other polyester products. The market is full of bullish and short news, and there will be more in the future. How will it develop?
Based on the current fundamentals, the operating rate of downstream yarn mills has gradually declined since January 2020. However, since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative. In addition, Since the middle of the year, factory maintenance has gradually increased, so the industry’s supply pressure is generally low in the first quarter. Moreover, although downstream yarn mills currently have abundant raw material inventories, most of their own orders can be received until March. With ample room for processing fees and good orders, mills may still have a wave of stocking operations before the holiday.
Recent direct spinning staple fiber maintenance/restart schedule:
Based on the above theory, the future market of polyester staple fiber is still relatively optimistic However, in terms of raw material costs, with the gradual implementation of polyester factory maintenance plans and the gradual increase in supply, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will gradually intensify. Although the short-term supply of ethylene glycol is slightly tight, it will also face the contradiction between supply and demand in the future. Therefore, in a cycle of substantial production expansion, the market’s expectations for the future are not optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the industry’s expectations for oil are optimistic, which will form a strong support for polyester raw materials in terms of cost.
Furthermore, compared with the continued rise in cotton spinning raw materials such as cotton and viscose staple fiber, polyester staple fiber currently has a small increase; the current cotton-polyester price difference is still at a historically high level. The price difference between viscose and polyester continues to widen; most yarn mill buyers believe that polyester staple fiber is still at a low value level, and there is currently good room for processing fees for various pure and blended yarns, especially pure polyester T32S. It is above 1,000 yuan/ton, so theoretically speaking, spinning mills can accept the current price of short fiber.
The author believes that the main factor restricting the current price increase of polyester staple fiber is that there are still some low-priced supply sources in the market that have not yet been digested. At present, traders’ yarn mills The cost of short fiber is mostly lower than 6,150 yuan/ton. As the news is not all expected to be good and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, buyers still have a strong wait-and-see mentality, so it is normal for spot prices to fall within a narrow range.
However, based on the current fundamentals, negative inventory of short fiber companies may become the norm in the first quarter, coupled with the increase in routine maintenance at the end of the year, and the holiday time of downstream spinning mills is slightly later than expected, Moreover, the market’s mid- to long-term expectations for oil are still optimistic. Taken together, the polyester staple fiber market may rise more easily than fall in the first quarter. </p
