The Spring Festival holiday is less than one month away. Since the middle of this month, downstream weaving, printing and dyeing companies have stopped for the holiday. Demand has shrunk sharply. The current epidemic situation is severe and aggravated. The market is in a wait-and-see atmosphere, and the year-end sales of the polyester filament industry have quietly begun.
The speed of transmission is accelerating, so the epidemic situation after New Year’s Day is also expected. Since the middle of the year, some workers in texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories have been returning to their hometowns, causing labor shortages in the industry, and some companies were forced to stop and take holidays. In order to prevent workers from returning home to aggravate the epidemic, and on the other hand to ensure the normal operation of equipment at the end of the year and after the Spring Festival, some companies responded to the government’s call and retained workers by raising wages or improving welfare benefits. According to industry insiders, some factories have a double-salary system for internships during the Spring Festival, as well as holiday red envelopes. Some factories also implement a salary increase system. Depending on the length of service and the operation of the company, the monthly salary will be increased by 1,000-2,000 yuan. If there are special circumstances, advance payment is required. Those who leave their jobs need to apply in writing 15 days in advance. For employees who remain on the job, the company will provide accommodation, lunch, dinner, and condolence red envelopes. This move is intended to retain workers and reduce the risk of turnover. It also prevents workers from suddenly leaving their posts, causing job vacancies and forcing the equipment to reduce its load. If the epidemic becomes more serious after the Spring Festival, it can also avoid the risk of employees not being able to arrive on time. However, this has increased the company’s expenses. Depending on the size of the company, the additional expenses can range from several million to tens of millions.
However, most employees still have a strong desire to return home. As the Spring Festival is a traditional festival, everyone is homesick and reunited. After working away from home for a year, the Spring Festival It is the day that everyone is looking forward to returning, so except for a few children and parents who live locally, most workers plan to return to their hometowns.
Figure 1 Domestic polyester filament production and sales rate trends in the past three months
Source:LongzhongInformation
ThroughtheproductionandsalesofpolyesterfilamentinthepastthreemonthsItcanbeseenfromthepricetrendchartthattheproductionandsalesofpolyesterfilamenthavecontinuedtodeclinesinceJanuary.TheeffectofthetwopromotionsafterNewYear’sDayandinthemiddleoftheyearwerenotasgoodasthecompany’sexpectations.Inthemiddleoftheyear,asdownstreamcompaniesstoppedforholidaysoneafteranother,theproductionandsalesratealsoplummeted.Inthepastweek,Polyesterfilamentproductionandsaleshavebasicallyremainedat30-40%.Althoughtheimpactofpowerrestrictions,energyconservationandemissionreduction,boilerrenovationandotherpoliciesattheendofDecember,polyesterfilamentproductionhasalsoshownaslightdownwardtrend,buttheoverallsupplypressureisstillhigh.
Figure2Comparisonofdomesticpolyesterfilamentanddownstreamstart-upin2020-2021
Source: Longzhong Information
By comparing polyester filament and downstream processing According to the operating load of elastic and weaving equipment, it can be seen that the weaving start-up showed a downward trend as early as the end of December, while during the same period, the start-up of polyester filament and texturing enterprises rebounded slightly with the end of power restrictions and energy conservation and emission reduction. Since January The decline in weaving starts has accelerated, especially since the middle of the year, which has dropped to below 70%. In the same period, polyester filament and texturing starts were mostly around 85%, which is 18-21 percentage points higher. At present, the texturing and weaving operations in Xiaoshao area continue to decline, and it is said that about 2/3 of the weaving companies in Xiaoshao area have stopped for holidays recently. Therefore, it is now the time to promote before the Spring Festival. Logistics and transportation will also be limited in the later period. Therefore, most polyester long Silk factories have started pre-Spring Festival promotions since this week. Today’s promotions are relatively large, with most companies’ promotions being around 200 yuan/ton.
At present, the National Health Commission has specified that returnees must have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 7 days before they can return home. At the same time, after these returnees return, Local grassroots governments must conduct grid management of these people. The returnees mentioned in the work plan refer to those who return to rural areas from other places. It mainly includes: first, people returning home from across provinces; second, people returning home from the city where medium and high risk areas are located in the province (in principle, people within medium and high risk areas do not move); third, employees of imported cold chain food and ports in the province. Direct contact with key groups such as those working in imported goods, those working in isolation areas, and those working in transportation vehicles.
In addition, returning home with a negative nucleic acid test certificate will be implemented from the beginning of the Spring Festival on January 28 to the end of the Spring Festival on March 8. There is no need to quarantine after returning home with a negative nucleic acid test certificate, but you need to conduct 14 days of home health monitoring, monitor body temperature and symptoms, and do not go out or gather unless necessary. A nucleic acid test will be done on the 7th day and the 14th day respectively. If the return home is less than 14 days, the actual return time will be used to implement home health monitoring and nucleic acid testing requirements.
It means that those who return to their hometowns before the 28th of this month do not need to have a negative nucleic acid test certificate to return home. If they return after the 28th, they will need to undergo a nucleic acid test first. can embark on a journey back to their hometowns, so those who plan to return to their hometowns will have to leave their jobs and return to their hometowns starting next week at the latest, and some workers have already made arrangements to return to their hometowns.The process of returning home began before the epidemic, so the downstream operating rate will drop significantly this week. So now may be the last opportunity for promotion before the Spring Festival. However, the effect of corporate centralized promotions in the morning was not good. Downstream users were in a wait-and-see mood and actual transactions were limited. It is expected that the discount range will still be expanded in the afternoon. If the discount range reaches 400-500 yuan/ton, the overall production and sales rate is expected to reach around 200%. .
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