Raw material end: In terms of PTA, the recent restart of Zhongjin Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons PX unit was delayed by one month due to failure, and the ACP negotiations were reached in February, superimposing the current PTA The circulating spot is still tight, and the PTA processing range is currently between 360-400 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, supply is tight due to the delay in new domestic production capacity and the decline in imports of foreign goods. In the short term, polyester dual raw materials are still supported.
Supply end: As of February 1, polyester filament production is currently at 72.95%. Within the month, Shenghong 200,000 tons/year and Xianglu 18 The 10,000 tons/year polyester filament plant has been gradually restarted in the near future. There were still 400,000 tons/year Southeast New Materials and 200,000 tons/year polyester filament plants in Jiangsu Shenjiu before the year. Maintenance is expected, and considering the need for workers after the Spring Festival There is uncertainty about returning to work. The start-up of polyester plants after the Spring Festival may be delayed, and some factories have not yet reduced production. The pressure on warehouses during the Spring Festival is high, and maintenance may be expected after the holiday. It is expected that polyester filament production will fluctuate around 70% in February, and supply will be loose.
Demand side: At present, most downstream weaving companies have stopped for seasonal maintenance, and the weaving start-up load is already around 30%. As the Spring Festival approaches, around the Lunar New Year, weaving The machine load is still expected to decline further. The stocking of weaving raw materials has come to an end before the Spring Festival. This year’s terminal stocking is more cautious than in previous years. Except for a wave of concentrated promotions at the end of the year, downstream stocking is mostly for urgent needs. This year’s downstream stocking is not as good as expected. , some factories only have raw materials available until the end of February, and the demand situation after the Spring Festival is mainly affected by the overseas epidemic situation and it is still unclear.
Inventory:
Changes in inventory days in the domestic direct spinning polyester filament industry
Source: Longzhong Information
Polyester filament factory’s current POY inventory is mostly 6-12 days, and FDY inventory is mostly 9-14 days, some are longer It is about one month higher, and DTY inventory is mostly about 14-19 days, and the lower inventory is about a week, and the overall inventory is more than ten days. Considering that the overall inventory in February is in a state of accumulation, the factory inventory will be under great pressure by the end of February. Polyester The supply of filament yarn is relatively loose in February.
Market expectations:
In February, the market price of polyester filament may rise first and then The trend is suppressed, and there is a narrow decline expected at the end of February. Crude oil is strong, PX supply is tight, and PTA supply is expected to increase in February despite the actual increase. This supports the warm operation of polyester filament, which may be driven by the cost side. However, considering that terminal weaving demand is weak in February, polyester filament stockpiles are significantly accumulated that month. , the market mentality is cautious, and the uncertainty of demand-side orders after the Spring Festival still exists. In the short term, polyester filament yarn will run on a warmer trend before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, as corporate inventories accumulate, the upward space for polyester yarn prices will be restricted, and it is expected to be narrow at the end of the month. The trend of negative decline is running.
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