Multiple data reports overnight frequently reported positive news. The U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks rose, U.S. bond yields rose, and gold and silver prices came under pressure. The USDA report continues to make positive adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand situation, and increases my country’s cotton imports and consumption for the new year. US cotton rose nearly 4%.
The U.S. payroll data brought good news, the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks rose
Last night, the U.S. labor force Data released by the Ministry of Health showed that in the week ended January 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 779,000, lower than the 830,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Analysts believe that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, indicating that the labor market is weakening as authorities begin to relax restrictions on businesses related to the new crown epidemic. It’s stabilizing.
As of early morning today, the three major U.S. stock indexes had collectively closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.23%. The indices all hit new closing highs. However, retail investors’ group stocks fell collectively, with GameStop falling more than 42%, down nearly 90% from the record high set at the end of last month.
Gold and silver “flooded”
Spurred by the dollar, U.S. stocks rose, and U.S. Treasury yields Affected by factors such as rising interest rates and the market waiting for the latest progress in U.S. stimulus policy measures, the precious metals market fell under pressure. As of the close early this morning, gold closed down 2.26% and silver closed down 1.8%.
Analysts believe that the rise in the U.S. dollar and higher U.S. bond yields are the two main reasons for suppressing the rise in gold prices. The market is awaiting the results of U.S. non-farm payroll data, and gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly.
CITIC Futures analyst Yang Li believes that silver is gradually returning to its fundamental value. The divergence of silver futures trends at home and abroad indicates that the suppressive power of my country’s sufficient production capacity and inventory of silver may appear. The phenomenon of silver being “sparkling all night long” is expected to be extinguished, while precious metals such as platinum and palladium are more worthy of attention.
The USDA report was positive, and US cotton rose 3.94%
Early this morning, the latest USDA data report Out of the oven. Data show that as of the week of January 28, 2021, U.S. cotton export net sales in 2020/2021 were 69,300 tons, of which 22,300 tons were sold to China, and U.S. cotton exports were shipped to 76,900 tons, of which 24,700 tons were shipped to China. Analysts believe that the USDA report continues to make positive adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand situation and increases my country’s cotton imports and consumption in the new year, supporting higher international cotton prices.
Crude oil prices rise “come on”, oil prices hit a one-year high
U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly The data reproduction is good. Data show that as of the week of January 29, U.S. crude oil inventories were 476 million barrels, a decrease of 990,000 barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but gasoline demand is more than 10% higher than the same period in five years.
Affected by this news, the energy sector of the domestic futures market closed broadly higher yesterday. Among them, the main contract of PVC futures rose 4.2%, the main contract of styrene futures rose 3.2%, and crude oil The main futures contract rose 2.9%, and the main methanol futures contract rose 2.7%.
Li Wanying, a senior energy and chemical analyst at the Donghai Research Institute, said that in addition to U.S. data, the crude oil market is currently releasing other more positive signals. It is reported that at the 14th ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production-reduction allies, the Market Monitoring Committee of OPEC and its production-reduction allies did not mention changing oil policies. Most member countries were required to maintain stable production in February as planned, while the largest exporter Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. In addition, although the epidemic abroad is still spreading recently, the market still has high expectations for vaccines.
It is worth noting that the cross-month backwardation of New York crude oil and Brent crude oil is at the widest level in more than a year. In other words, the price of the front-month contract is higher than that of the far-month contract. Analysts believe that this is a signal that current demand and expected supply will tighten.
“Oil prices have risen recently, partly due to new demand optimism triggered by U.S. fiscal stimulus. In addition, OPEC has repeatedly promised to rebalance the supply and demand of the oil market, and OPEC still expects production cuts to The oil market will remain in short supply throughout the year. As the overseas epidemic situation eases, there is still room for oil prices to rise in the future, and the target price of New York oil prices is US$60 per barrel.” Li Wanying said.
“Fuel oil has followed the rise in oil prices. Despite the impact of the epidemic, traders remain cautious about the market outlook, resulting in less pre-holiday stocking than in previous years, but costs have provided certain support for spot prices. “From a fundamental point of view, she believes that the supply of domestic low-sulfur residual oil and asphalt resources has been partially tightened, and the cost of ship fuel has increased.
It is worth mentioning that PVC prices have been running strongly recently, rebounding from the bottom at the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%. Li Weiming, a researcher in the energy and chemical industry group of Guangzhou Futures Research Institute, said that PVCThe logic of the increase mainly comes from the expectation of overseas device maintenance and the market’s interpretation of Inner Mongolia’s electricity price policy. However, the core driving force behind the rapid increase still comes from the supply and demand structure of PVC itself. </p
