Cotton yarn futures fell sharply last week and continued their downward trend this week. As of March 12, 2021, CY C32S pure cotton yarn closed at 25,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton or 1.70% from the same period last week.
Zheng cotton fell again this week. This time it not only broke through 16,000 again, but also the low point almost broke through 15,500 as of Yesterday, the main cotton 2105 contract closed at 15,790 yuan/ton, a slight correction after closing at 15,550 the previous day. But this time, cotton processing companies and traders performed relatively calmly, and ginners’ reluctance to sell was also on the rise. Due to concerns about the sharp short-term fluctuations in Zheng cotton, a large number of cotton traders and futures companies reduced or suspended basis purchases and switched to By intensifying the “arbitrage” operation, compared with the CF2105 contract delivery, not only the profit is increased, but also the troubles such as transportation and transaction delivery are reduced, and the payment is collected two to three months in advance. Judging from the profits of cotton yarn processing by textile companies, due to the early “curve overtaking” of cotton yarns and the fact that the price drop this time is significantly smaller than that of raw materials, the current profits have reached between 2300-2500, and such high profits have even reached historical highs. As the saying goes, “If you don’t open for three years, you will have to wait for three years if you open.” Since March, textile companies have purchased raw materials in large quantities, causing the cotton inventory of textile companies to reach a three-year high. At the same time, it has also caused a sharp decline in Zheng cotton and the dilemma of cotton yarn. “.
Affected by the sharp drop in Zheng cotton last week, shipments in the cotton yarn market have slowed down significantly starting from last week . However, since most textile companies still have orders in hand, and there are also many orders for April-May, most textile companies are waiting and watching, and the quotations remain stable, while some higher quotations are lowered. On the other hand, if the yarn price adjusts downward significantly, many problems will also be encountered. First, many textile companies have just raised the ex-factory price of cotton yarn one after another from late February to early March, and then lowered it significantly in just a few days. It may be difficult for customers to accept it, and repeated communication and negotiation are required; second, if the yarn price is lowered by more than 500 yuan/ tons, it will be difficult to execute orders received after the Spring Festival, and the probability of default by buyers such as downstream fabric factories, clothing companies and foreign trade companies will increase significantly. The person in charge of a spinning mill in Shandong said that around the Spring Festival, the CF2105 contract price rose linearly from 14,735 to 17,080, an increase of 2,345 points. With such a large fluctuation, the cotton spinning mill simply did not have the ability and profit margin to absorb it, so it could only follow Zheng Cotton to significantly increase the quotation. . In the final analysis, participation in cotton yarn futures is not high and attention is too low. Textile companies do not have hedging tools like Zheng Cotton, so it is basically “spot versus spot”. Once there is a “turbulence” in cotton futures, cotton yarn can only “The yarn dances with the flowers.”
Downstream gray fabrics can be said to be “feeling proud” this time. As of March 11, all cotton gray fabrics CG C32 closed at 6.08 yuan/meter. Although it fell slightly year-on-year last week, the increase since March was greater than that of cotton yarn. For the weaving factory, watching Shangyou was like watching a big show, “Seeing him building a Zhulou, watching him entertaining guests, watching his building collapse.” Before work started after the holiday, the price of raw materials first increased by 1,500 yuan/ton. Fortunately, most weaving factories have sufficient raw material stocks, and customers who are in urgent need only purchase sporadically and wait and see.
February RMB The exchange rate fluctuates in a range, which does not have a great impact on the settlement of imported yarn. However, the exchange rate showed a slight depreciation trend in early March, which is not conducive to imported yarn and increases settlement costs. In terms of price, due to the sharp drop in internal and external yarn prices this week, internal and external yarns are currently in an upside-down state. As of the 11th, FCY Index C32S closed at 25,880 yuan/ton, a drop of 91 yuan/ton last week. In addition, the operating rate of downstream weaving mills is low, new purchases are limited, and traders are pre-selling and sending more old orders, so the actual inventory of imported yarn is still at a low level. It is worth mentioning that in recent days, Pakistani media have continuously released news that the shortage of cotton yarn raw materials has further intensified due to the entry of the peak consumption season and the transfer of orders. The textile industry chain continues to put pressure on the Pakistani government to allow the import of cotton yarn produced in India to alleviate the shortage of local cotton yarn supply. The All Pakistan Cotton Power Looms Association (APCPLA) has even requested the government to ensure that imported yarn is completely duty-free. Abdul Razak Dawood, the former Pakistan Commerce Minister and now the government’s commercial adviser, claimed on social media on March 3 that “the Prime Minister expressed concern about the shortage and rising prices of cotton yarn and directed that necessary measures, including cross-border trade of cotton yarn, be taken to maintain value-added exports” Momentum.” Since the Chinese New Year, the price of Indian cotton yarn has continued to rise. Although China’s demand for printed yarn has weakened due to high prices in the near future, if Pakistan allows the import of printed yarn, the Pakistani market will help India absorb part of its production capacity.The export of printed yarn, which has slowed down slightly, will once again improve, and the demand for printed yarn will increase to a certain extent; local Indian yarn mills may experience tight production capacity, and shipping schedules may be further delayed. This may become the next factor supporting printing yarn prices.
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