After the Spring Festival holiday, the trend of ethylene glycol futures prices was like a “roller coaster”: from the end of February to the beginning of March, ethylene glycol continued to rise sharply, driven by rising oil prices and rising optimism in the entire energy and chemical sector, reaching a peak of close to 6,300. yuan/ton, setting a new high since the futures were launched; in the past week, the ethylene glycol market has experienced a sudden change. Although oil prices rebounded after two consecutive days of decline, ethylene glycol futures prices still fell sharply. Regarding the market outlook, we believe that in the short term, although international oil prices will still boost ethylene glycol, under the circumstances of “strong reality and weak expectations” and the influence of “weak expectations” gradually increasing, ethylene glycol may be difficult to reproduce in the early stage. Strong performance.
Domestic device start-up increases
With the sharp rise in ethylene glycol futures prices after the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol The alcohol processing gap has expanded significantly, and the production willingness of enterprises has been restored. As a result, the start-up of domestic ethylene glycol plants has increased significantly. As of March 12, the comprehensive daily operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol plants was 67.83%, an increase of 6.89 percentage points from February 10 before the Spring Festival, and a decrease of 1.35 percentage points from the same period in 2020; based on estimates based on existing effective production capacity, 3 On March 12, the domestic daily output of ethylene glycol was approximately 29,200 tons, an increase of approximately 4,900 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
In addition to the increase in existing production capacity, the commissioning of new equipment has also become the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over ethylene glycol. According to existing plans, Hubei Sanning, Satellite Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s second phase ethylene glycol plants will be put into operation in the near future. Among them, Satellite Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s second phase are both large-scale devices with an annual production capacity of more than 1.5 million tons. If these three units are put into operation as scheduled, the effective annual domestic ethylene glycol production capacity will increase by 3.78 million tons, accounting for 64.73% of the annual planned new production capacity. Although based on past conditions, it will still take some time for the new device to be commissioned and the output will be stably released, but more than 60% of the new production capacity for the whole year is about to be put into production, which still puts greater pressure on ethylene glycol.
Market trading has been flat
The impact of the “New Year’s Eve in situ” initiative by provincial and municipal governments Under the influence of factors such as the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, polyester companies have resumed work significantly faster than in previous years; under the influence of factors such as expected improvement in the end market and the expected recovery of foreign trade orders, the start-up of polyester plants has increased to the highest level in recent years. As of March 12, the comprehensive daily operating rate of domestic polyester was 91.09%, an increase of 12.91 percentage points from before the Spring Festival and an increase of 20.45 percentage points from the same period in 2020. Based on the current polyester production capacity, the daily domestic polyester production capacity is estimated to be approximately It was 159,100 tons, an increase of approximately 43,900 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
As most companies complete phased inventory replenishment within the first two weeks after the Spring Festival, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials has dropped significantly, and trading in the polyester market has also been dull. . In the week of March 11, the weekly production and sales rates of domestic polyester chips, polyester staple fiber and filament were 56.94%, 28.78%, and 63.21% respectively, which were 3.06, 84.22, and 1.75 percentage points lower than the same period in 2020.
Port inventories remain low
In late February and early March, ethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at East China ports Ship cargo reached a level of about 200,000 tons for two consecutive weeks, but then dropped again to a low level of about 150,000 tons; at the same time, ethylene glycol shipments at East China ports were in good condition, with Zhangjiagang and Taicang in most of the post-holiday period. The combined daily shipment volume of the two places exceeds 10,000 tons. The inbound cargo volume is low and the outbound cargo situation is good, which keeps the ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports at a low level. According to the latest statistical data, ethylene glycol stocks at East China ports have increased. However, considering that overseas equipment maintenance and the equipment forced to shut down due to extremely cold weather in the United States have not yet resumed, it is difficult for short-term ethylene glycol imports to increase significantly. Therefore, it is expected that the port Ethylene glycol stocks will continue to remain low. As of March 11, the total ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports was 643,100 tons, a decrease of 263,300 tons from the same period in 2020.
In the short term, with the start-up of polyester plants remaining at a high level and the start-up of terminal looms continuing to increase, the contradiction between supply and demand of ethylene glycol is not prominent, and the inventory at East China ports remains low and International oil prices continue to run at high levels for more than a year, which can provide certain support for ethylene glycol. However, corresponding to the relatively strong “reality” is that a large number of new devices are about to be put into production. After the import of ethylene glycol rebounds, the pressure to increase supply will increase significantly. “Weak expectations”, and as time goes by, the impact of “weak expectations” on ethylene glycol futures prices gradually increases.
In summary, we believe that under the influence of “strong reality and weak expectations”, despite the boost of international oil prices, B It may be difficult for glycol to reproduce its strong performance in the early stage, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. As the “weak expectation” effect gradually strengthens, the trend of ethylene glycol is expected to weaken in the later period. </p
