It is understood that in April, three new sets of polyester filament equipment are expected to be put into production in China. Specifically, the 300,000-ton polyester filament plant in the first phase of Xinfengming Zhongyue and the 100,000-ton polyester filament plant in the second phase of Weifang Huabao are newly added production capacities. The 600,000-ton polymerization device of Hengli Hengke will be launched in 2020. It was put into operation at the end of July and polyester chips will be produced in mid-August. The company plans to switch to the production of polyester filament semi-gloss POY on April 10.
Some users have replenishment needs at the beginning of the month
The contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent throughout the month
The average monthly start-up of polyester filament in March was 92.56%, and the start-up at the end of March has increased to 94.74%. In April, new production capacity was launched and supply increased, and the start-up of polyester filament is expected to Continuing to increase slightly, according to statistics, the output of polyester filament in April is expected to be around 2.5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, increasing supply pressure.
Weekly average production and sales trend of polyester filament from 2020 to 2021:
According to previous practice, during the Qingming Festival or at the end of the holiday, polyester filament production and sales had a small peak. After downstream users concentrated on purchasing, the market gradually became deserted. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream users concentrated on stocking up. The current raw material inventory can last until mid-April. Some users said that raw material inventory can last until May. Therefore, some users have certain replenishment needs in early April. However, after the centralized replenishment, the market atmosphere in April It will also gradually cool down. Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent in April.
The new production capacity is expected to be more than 6 million tons
The average annual growth rate remains around 9%
For more than ten years, my country’s polyester filament production capacity has shown a trend of rapid growth. Especially in 2011, driven by the skyrocketing price of cotton, the demand for chemical fibers as a substitute has shown a blowout growth. , thereby accelerating the growth of industry production capacity.
According to data, the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity has shown signs of slowing down slightly in recent years. However, in 2021-2022, the new polyester filament production capacity is expected to be more than 6 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of more than 6 million tons. The growth rate remains near 9%.
Geographic distribution of polyester filament production capacity in 2021:
As of press time, polyester filament in 2021 The average annual production capacity is 32.335 million tons (excluding long-stop production capacity on January 1, and the production capacity is basically adjusted). In the first quarter, two domestic units were put into operation, one of which was the 250,000-ton unit of Haining Hengyi New Materials, and the second was Fujian Yijin. The 250,000 tons of equipment put into operation are all FDY production lines.
The concentration of the polyester yarn industry has increased
Differentiated products are expected to become a new growth point for performance
Looking at 2021-2023, the investment in new polyester filament production capacity still mainly comes from leading companies. Among them, Xinfengming Group will add 3 million tons, Tongkun Group will add 2 million tons, Hengyi Group will add 1.3 million tons, and Hengli Group will add 2.3 million tons.
Compared with the PX and PTA industries, which are undergoing deep reshuffling, the polyester filament industry has basically completed integration and upgrading. The competitiveness of leading companies continues to become stronger, and CR6 production capacity accounts for 10% of my country’s total. 60% of total polyester filament production capacity. The current disclosed production expansion information shows that all the new production capacity comes from leading companies.
With the expansion of the second phase of the project of the leading refining and chemical enterprise, the raw material cost advantage of the leading enterprise will continue to be enlarged, coupled with the costs caused by scale Advantages, the polyester filament industry has established high industry barriers, and it will become increasingly difficult to shake. According to the analysis of the Guojin Securities team, the cost advantages of different polyester filaments of leading refining and chemical companies are also reflected in the following aspects:
POY: Companies that also produce POY filaments are in terms of scale and efficiency. , the difference in equipment energy consumption can be about 100-200 yuan/ton.
FDY: Considering that the FDY process uses a lot of compressed air, the compressed air unit can be driven by a steam turbine or an electric motor, so energy consumption is the main cost. If the pressure does not require electricity or the factory has its own power plant, the cost can be saved by 150-250 yuan/ton.
DTY: Compared with companies that outsource POY for the texturing process, companies with integrated POY-DTY links have higher power consumption and packaging ratio than non-raw material costs for DTY processing. About 40% of the total cost can be saved by supporting public engineering systems (self-provided power plant/steam) and self-produced packaging materials (including paper tubes, foam boards, cartons, wooden frame recycling, etc.) of about 150-250 yuan/ton. The efficiency difference between old and new texturing equipment, including vehicle speed, power consumption, single machine efficiency, etc. can save costs by 150-1,000 yuan/ton depending on the type of filament.
At the same time, high concentration brings high bargaining power. Compared with downstream textile companies with obvious decentralization characteristics, the high concentration of filament companies allows them to take more effective measures to protect their own interests. Using POY as an indicator to analyze, from February to March 2020, due to the dual impact of the Spring Festival off-season and the epidemic, filament inventory once rose to 31 days. With the rapid control of the domestic epidemic, the inventory also returned to the central level of about 15 days. In the third quarter, the gross profit of the filament industry continued to be negative, and the rising inventory from the previous quarter showed that companies have begun to accumulate inventory in a planned way. According to China Fiber Network, mainstream polyester filament factories have developed limited…�News on price guarantee measures. Production restriction + inventory accumulation effectively protect the company’s profit level and avoid further price declines. With the improvement of the domestic economic situation in the spring of 2021 and the recovery of domestic demand, the demand for filament yarn in the lower reaches of the industrial chain has taken the lead in recovering.
Leading companies continue to release new production capacity, industry concentration will be further enhanced, industrial chain supporting facilities will be more complete, and the supply of differentiated polyester filament will steadily increase. At the same time, downstream Demand growth may slow down, and excess supply will remain a major problem in the future. </p
