On the one hand, the destocking trend continues, and short-term market sentiment is optimistic; on the other hand, downstream rigid demand still exists in June, which brings certain support to the market. Overall, PTA still has room for upside.
The picture shows the weekly inventory trend of PTA
At present, the commissioning of new PTA equipment has been delayed again, and mainstream supply Businessmen have reduced contract volumes, supply-side benefits have accumulated, and the destocking trend has continued, supporting market sentiment. Although the current PTA processing gap is at a high level, the price of glacial acetic acid is also high. Therefore, we believe that the driving factors for PTA prices are relatively clear, and it is appropriate to place long orders in the 2201 contract.
Short-term market sentiment is optimistic
Entering June, with the summer The travel peak is gradually approaching, and the center of gravity of crude oil prices continues to shift upward, with the possibility of breaking through the previous high. The centralized maintenance of the PX plant is coming to an end. Although the start-up of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed again, supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, PTA factories have reduced contract volumes. Overall, PX supply and demand fundamentals have weakened. It is expected that the PX processing gap will narrow in June, and profits will gradually be transferred downstream.
From the perspective of the PTA supply side, PTA operating rates gradually declined in May, maintenance gradually increased, and social inventory compressed from 3.37 million tons at the beginning of May to 3.21 million tons at the end of the month, maintaining Destocking quotes.
In June, the terminal order situation has not improved significantly, and there is an expectation that the terminal load will weaken. However, as rigid demand still exists, the polyester load remains at a high level. In addition, the commissioning of new PTA equipment has been delayed again, and mainstream suppliers have reduced contract volumes, highlighting the benefits on the supply side. Therefore, entering June, PTA prices are mainly on the strong side, and there is still room for upside.
Polyester load remains high
Planned maintenance of polyester in June The production capacity is 1.15 million tons, and the polyester production capacity is planned to be restarted to 1.05 million tons. There are not many polyester maintenance and most maintenance equipment will be shut down for about 2 weeks. The polyester start-up load is expected to remain high in June, and the polyester start-up load is estimated to be 88% – 90%.
The picture shows the trend of PTA operating rate
In addition to the increase in production and sales during discount promotions, polyester production and sales Relatively depressed. In terms of categories, the POY inventory reduction is more obvious after discounts and promotions, while the FDY inventory pressure is still large, and the differentiation is obvious. The main reason is that the downstream of POY is textured, and the downstream operating rate is still maintained at a high level, while the downstream of FDY is gray cloth, with high inventory. Moreover, high temperature will also inhibit the downstream load and strongly inhibit the destocking of FDY.
Generally speaking, downstream rigid demand still exists in June, which brings certain support to the market. However, speculative purchasing demand is insufficient and high inventory pressure makes it difficult to It is understood that in the future, the progress of destocking still needs to pay attention to the improvement of new orders. Therefore, there is still support for PTA from downstream rigid demand in June, but there is limited room for improvement.
To sum up, entering June, although the improvement of downstream orders is limited and the differentiation of polyester products is serious, rigid demand still exists and the overall support is strong. . Polyester enterprises are undergoing maintenance and resumption of production. The overall load remains high, and the polyester end’s support for PTA is still obvious. In addition, the destocking trend continues and the short-term market sentiment is optimistic. It is expected that PTA will still have room for upside in the future. </p
