International oil prices are rising more and more rapidly, and there are endless calls to be bullish on US$100. The latest to join the optimistic camp are the world’s top commodity traders.
According to the Financial Times, executives from major oil trading companies such as Vitol Group, Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group They all said on Tuesday that there was a real possibility of oil prices rising to $100 a barrel, as investment in new supply has slowed before demand has peaked and green alternatives cannot fill the gap.
In the first decade of this century, oil prices exceeding $100 were not an unattainable goal. But since U.S. shale oil producers began producing oil in 2014, international oil prices have never returned to the high of $100. Since last year, as the global economy has gradually emerged from the haze of the epidemic, crude oil demand has recovered rapidly, and OPEC on the supply side has maintained production cuts, driving oil prices to rebound sharply from more than 20 US dollars.
As of the 16th, Brent crude oil rose 1.94% to US$74.27/barrel; WTI crude oil rose 0.44% to US$72.44/barrel.
Trafigura Executive Chairman Jeremy Weir at the Commodities Global Summit held by the Financial Times He said he was concerned about the lack of investment in new supply because the world is not ready for clean energy and full electrification: The problem with oil is not demand, supply is a concern. Our reserves have dropped from 15 years to 10 years, and capital expenditures have dropped from $400 billion per year five years ago to just $100 billion per year. So there’s a concern on the supply side, which I think could push prices higher. Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said oil prices reaching $100 a barrel was a “possibility”, but he believed there should be 5 million barrels of spare capacity in the market.
Alex Sanna, an oil trader at Glencore, also said that it is increasingly likely that oil prices will reach $100 per barrel. “If you cut supply without solving Demand problems may lead to price chaos. In fact, it only takes one or two events for oil prices to surge substantially.”
“Commodity flag bearer” Goldman Sachs has been said that falling oil prices are a good buying opportunity and predicted that Brent crude oil will reach $80 per barrel this summer. Oil prices are currently approaching Goldman Sachs’ forecast target, and the investment bank’s latest statement on June 15 said that it does not rule out the possibility of oil prices rising to US$100 per barrel.
In fact, Wall Street traders have begun betting on $100 per barrel crude oil call options for delivery in December 2022. Some activists have directly started betting on $100/barrel crude oil call options for delivery in December 2021. The contract at the beginning of this month involved 32 million barrels of crude oil, while at the end of last year, the trading volume of this type of contract was zero.
Crude oil is rising sharply, and polyester raw materials are rising!
Crude oil, as the leading variety in the futures chemical sector, has a greater impact on related products in the polyester industry chain.
If crude oil rises sharply, the downstream generally becomes less bearish about the market outlook, and the willingness to buy will be greatly increased. Market supply will be increased, and the improvement in market conditions will also be significantly boosted. The rapid manifestation of all this transmission effect is that crude oil is still one of the main determinants of the polyester industry chain.
Crude oil has risen sharply again in recent days, which has given a boost to the sluggish market. Boosted by this, domestic SC crude oil and related polyester raw material varieties have risen on the 15th.
Overall, the current deep-seated changes in the supply and demand pattern have laid the foundation for The strong trend of crude oil has been confirmed, and the improvement of the epidemic situation in global economies has further increased the optimism of the market. Market price is the most direct reflection of the market situation. From the above comparison, it is not difficult to find that the rise in international oil prices has a greater impact on the cost of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG, but the indirect impact on the polyester surface has weakened.
For the polyester market, the decisive factor is still supply and demand. Taking into account the gradual acceptance of the downstream market, e-commerce season and autumn and winter orders have arrived one after another. Domestic and foreign trade orders in the market may pick up in stages, and the demand for replenishment in the terminal weaving market is still strong. Generally speaking, the recent ups and downs in the polyester market are due to the intertwining of long and short factors. The trend has shifted from raw material cost support to partial return to fundamental demand. The basic balance of supply and demand in the later period is still the trend.
But for now, if crude oil prices can continue to rise, the entire polyester market will improve, and this optimism will continue to spread in the short term. In addition, a series of factors such as the recent stabilization of the polyester raw material end and the increase in orders for the weaving end have also supported the recent polyester filament market. If crude oil prices continue to rise in the future, polyester yarn prices will be strongly supported. </p
