PTA has always been the focus of the futures chemical industry. Trading flexibility is also huge. In the recent period, as the differentiation rhythm of the commodity market has become more prominent, the chemical sector has performed relatively strongly after the holiday. Among them, PTA has released four positive lines in succession, repeatedly pushing higher and higher. As far as the current overall situation is concerned, the downward pressure on the commodity market is increasing. So, can PTA withstand the pressure and continue to move forward? From a fundamental perspective, what are the key points worth paying attention to now? As of the close of trading on Thursday, June 17, 2021, the main 09 contract of PTA futures was quoted at 4904 yuan, an increase of 1.32%.
Supplyhasdeclinedintheshortterm,butthereareexpectationsforanincreaseinthefuture
PTA-relatedsupplydatanewsshowsthat,accordingtoCCFdata,asofJune11(weekly)5),thePTAoperatingratewas79.3%,adecreaseof2.2percentagepointsfromlastweek.ThedecreaseinoperatingratethistimeismainlyduetotheshutdownofSanfangxiang’s1.2milliontons/yearPTAunitfortechnicalrenovationandthefollow-upshutdownofYadongPetrochemical’s750,000tons/yearPTAmaintenanceonJune6,whichbasicallycontinuedthepreviousmaintenancepace.,causingPTA’sshort-termstart-uptofallslightly.
Butlookingforward,assometimeago,YangziPetrochemical’s600,000tons/yearPTAunitexpiredandrestarted,andYishengNingbo’s2.2milliontons/yearThePTAplantisheatingupandrestarting,andsupplypressureisexpectedtograduallyreturn.Atthesametime,therearevariableswhenthemaintenanceofLiwanPolyester’s700,000tons/yearPTAunitisdue.OnJune16,YadongPetrochemical’s750,000tons/yearPTAunitwillbecompletedandrestarted.Therefore,itisexpectedthatthesubsequentPTAoperatingratewillgraduallypickup.Orto83%-85%,whichwillinevitablysuppressthecurrentprice.
The start of downstream construction is now in the off-season, and demand growth remains to be seen
PTA’s downstream polyester field is still in the industry’s off-season as a whole. According to relevant research report data, specifically Judging from the above, last Friday the production and sales of polyester filament was 21.6%, and the production and sales of polyester staple fiber were 62.66%. From a terminal perspective, the comprehensive startup load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has recently remained at around 71.83%, a slight decrease of 1.32% from last week. Among them, the market performance of Shengze Textile City market is not smooth, and the local gray fabric shipment speed has slowed down. Although orders have been placed, prices have been reduced. Therefore, the downstream polyester demand performance is not optimistic, and there may be some restrictions on price increases in the future. Rush.
Inventory removal continues, price formation is developing
As for the inventory situation, as of On June 11, PTA social inventory was 3.1727 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week. PTA continued to destock this week. The main reason for destocking this week is the supply reduction caused by the technical renovation of Sanfangxiang’s 1.2 million tons/year PTA unit and the follow-up maintenance of Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PTA unit, as well as the pace of maintenance. Therefore, the continued reduction of short-term inventories is another major driver of the recent price rebound.
Based on the above point of view, in the short term, due to the relief of supply pressure, inventory depletion, cost increases, etc., PTA prices have ushered in a small climax in the short term, and it is expected to still be mainly strong. In the future, as pressure on demand remains and supply is expected to rise, there may be certain limits to the increase.
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