[Introduction]: Maintenance equipment has been implemented one after another, and the space for polyester staple fiber processing fees has also continued to be low. However, downstream demand has been weak, and the operating rate of yarn companies this week has been There is a decline, and with so much bullishness and shortness intertwined, how will the polyester staple fiber market perform in the future?
The recent rise is due to the strong support for polymerization costs brought by the continued rise in oil prices. However, since mid-to-late May, the price of polyester staple fiber has continued to consolidate between 6550-6850 yuan/ton. , the fluctuation space does not exceed 300 yuan. Therefore, this week’s rise is also the same. Although the market price rose from 6,700 yuan to 6,850 yuan, it also fell back from 6,850 yuan to around 6,725 yuan in the second half of the week. The characteristics of range oscillation during this stage are very obvious, so will the subsequent market also maintain range oscillation?
First of all, let’s look at the cost logic. Since the short fiber spot processing fee space continues to be low, the market has been following the cost logic in the short term, but the cost support is strong. The logic comes from the high level of oil and the tight spot supply of PTA and ethylene glycol. But let’s not talk about the subsequent Fed interest rate hike expectations for oil. Looking purely at PTA and ethylene glycol, it is difficult for them to have sustained upward momentum in the context of increased supply and poor demand; therefore, cost logic is crucial to the follow-up The impact has been weakened.
The news of factory maintenance has been expected for a long time, and the subsequent decline in the industry’s operating rate has been limited. Moreover, during this period, there is a phenomenon of device restarts, and it is difficult for the supply side to reproduce strong support; and in terms of demand, although the spinning mills just need support, but Domestic demand itself is light in the off-season, while foreign trade orders are still hampered by factors such as high shipping costs and container shortages. The operating rates of spinning mills and gray cloth mills have shown signs of slight decline in hot and humid weather, so it is difficult to have any impact on short fiber. Explosive demand growth.
Taken together, although the short fiber processing fee space continues to be low, with the increase in domestic supply of TA and EG, the subsequent cost support logic will be weakened; From the perspective of supply and demand, although the concentration of equipment maintenance has caused a slight destocking in the industry, demand support is still insufficient under the overall off-season market. Therefore, the short fiber market may not perform well in June and July, and the trend of range fluctuations is still large. Probabilistic events.
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