Rising, rising, rising. Recently, textile people’s circle of friends has been flooded with news about “price increases”. The “protagonists” of this wave of price increases are mainly various types of chemical fiber filaments, among which “spandex” is the “protagonist” among the “protagonists”.
On July 6, the mainstream reference quotation of spandex 40D in Zhejiang was 72,000-75,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton from a week ago, and this price in 2020 In September, it was only 29,000 yuan/ton. Looking at spandex 20D, the current quotation has also risen to 90,000-95,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 86% since the beginning of this year, and an increase of more than 150% compared with the same period last year.
The increase is so high that it is clear at a glance.
It is reported that the current operating rate of the major spandex factories exceeds 90%, and the inventory level is at a historical low.
The “passivity” of spandex: starting with the plastic restriction order
As for the reasons for the current rise in spandex prices, multiple analytical institutions have given their own answers, but they are basically focused on two points: “changes in supply and demand relationships” in the industry and “substantial promotion of raw material BDO-PTMEG.”
Speaking of raw materials, the main chemical raw materials for producing spandex are PTMEG and pure MDI. PTMEG accounts for up to 80% of the solid content of spandex, and the upstream of PTMEG is BDO. .
In the third quarter of 2020, the price of pure MDI surged due to force majeure and maintenance of global MDI equipment, which promoted the first wave of rise in spandex prices. Later, since the first quarter of 2021, due to the skyrocketing price of raw material calcium carbide and the increase in demand for downstream biodegradable plastic PBAT, the price of BDO has skyrocketed. As the second largest downstream of BDO, PTMEG has been supported by cost-side price increases, which in turn has driven the second largest market for spandex. Round rise.
Therefore, from the perspective of raw materials, the most direct reason for the rise in spandex prices is the skyrocketing price of BDO.
1,4-Butanediol (BDO) is a colorless or light yellow oily liquid. Its downstream applications include PTMEG, PBT, γ-butyrolactone, etc. In 2019, the consumption proportions of the three major downstream applications were 54%, 27%, and 13% respectively. Therefore, PTMEG, the direct material for the production of spandex, is also an important consumer market for BDO.
The BDO market actually showed an upward trend as early as the fourth quarter of last year. After the Spring Festival this year, stimulated by favorable factors such as tight supply and strong downstream demand, the BDO price jumped to 31,000. Yuan/ton historical high. Looking at the entire chemical industry, BDO’s rising speed and magnitude are unparalleled.
The price increase of BDO is of course also caused by its strong downstream demand. Although “PTMEG-spandex” is BDO’s main downstream industry chain, its downstream industry chain is not limited to this one. .
After the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Opinions on Further Strengthening Plastic Pollution Control” on January 19, 2020, various places have issued corresponding “plastic restriction orders”. Supported by favorable policies, another application field of BDO, PBAT (thermoplastic biodegradable plastics – having the characteristics of PBA and PBT), has developed rapidly, and the demand has surged. Therefore, the consumption of raw materials has also surged, becoming the biggest dark horse.
Of course, in the face of a market with continued growth in demand, the total domestic BDO production capacity has also continued to grow in recent years. According to statistics from Chemical Industry Online, the total domestic BDO production capacity in 2020 is approximately 3.23 million tons. In the next few years, Wanhua Chemical, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan, Huahai Spandex, Hengli Energy, etc. are planning to build a BDO production capacity of more than 2 million tons, and the equipment scale It tends to become larger, but judging from the current situation, it is still a seller’s market where supply exceeds demand.
The price increase of the most upstream BDO has been transmitted to spandex. It is difficult not to increase the price. Moreover, it is reported that the new and planned PBAT production capacity will surge in the next two years, and the domestic BDO market prospects remain optimistic.
Behind the “active”: the broadening of application fields and the improvement of the added value of technology
Demand is the root of everything.
For the price increase of spandex, transmission from the raw material end is naturally a very important reason. However, the growth, or even surge, of downstream demand is an unavoidable fact. Among them, the impact of the “new crown epidemic” is naturally inseparable.
As we all know, spandex is the abbreviation of polyurethane fiber, a kind of elastic fiber that textile people are all too familiar with and vividly compares it to “monosodium glutamate”.
After the first successful research by Bayer Company in Germany in 1937, DuPont Company in the United States began industrial production in 1959. China’s first spandex company was Yantai Spandex Factory, which started production in 1989.
my country’s spandex production capacity accounted for 70.2% of global production capacity from 15.9% in 2002, and is now the world’s largest spandex producer. Today, the “MSG” package of spandex is no longer a simple seasoning. Changes in the downstream consumer market have made its connotation richer and its importance more prominent.
Spandex filament is an important raw material for the production of mask ear straps. Affected by the epidemic,��, the demand for spandex has increased significantly. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for sports and leisure clothing such as sportswear and yoga clothing is also increasing, and these clothing generally have high spandex content.
In the latest version of the “Chemical Fiber Blue Book” released by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, it is pointed out: “In 2020, under the influence of the new coronavirus pneumonia, the economic benefits and performance of the entire chemical fiber industry have declined. The operating quality has dropped significantly year-on-year, and the total profit of the entire industry has decreased by 15.06% year-on-year. However, the total profit of the spandex industry has increased significantly by 126.87% year-on-year.” This is enough to illustrate the strong demand for spandex.
Professor Jiang Gaoming of Jiangnan University said during the “Fiber Air Lecture”: “At present, about 35% to 40% of clothing in the downstream clothing field contains different proportions of spandex. Spandex It has gradually expanded from traditional application areas such as elastic stockings and underwear to high-end elastic casual wear, knitted outerwear and other fashionable clothing. At the same time, industrial spandex such as medical spandex, elastic decorative fabrics and elastic bands have gradually become new areas of spandex application. ”
In this regard, Jiang Gaoming gave an example: “For example, in molded elastic uppers, 20~70D spandex is added in the form of covered yarn or bare silk to make the upper fit the foot better. , move freely without restraint, and wear more comfortably; effectively reducing shoemaking processes such as sewing and fitting, and reducing labor; last year, global annual sales of knitted sports shoes were approximately 8 billion pairs, with an output value of 100 billion, accounting for 50% of the entire footwear category Above, the market is increasing steadily.
In addition, swimwear, leggings, knitted elastic denim, casual suit fabrics, sports compression socks, sports knee pads, air layer fabrics, etc. , the application fields of spandex are constantly expanding, and the growth of downstream demand is showing new characteristics. According to online shopping data tracked by market research company Slice Intelligence, in the third quarter of 2020, the number of leggings purchased online by women exceeded jeans for the first time. Last year, the number of leggings purchased Market demand has increased by 41%, while jeans have only increased by 3%. From 2015 to 2019, the demand for varicose vein socks in the Chinese market increased from 1.79 million pairs to 4.96 million pairs, with the growth rate maintained between 13.7% and 18.9%. The market The scale is about 3 billion yuan. These emerging fields have stimulated the growth of demand for spandex.
At the same time, product development in the spandex industry has also been relatively active in recent years.
Lianyungang Duzhong Xinaoshen Spandex Co., Ltd. (referred to as Duzhong Xinaoshen) is one of the first spandex manufacturing companies in China. In its 30 years of development, it has always regarded new product research and development as the core of the company’s development. We closely grasp the market supply and demand relationship, vigorously implement product differentiation strategy, and have successively launched a series of products such as dyeable, super soft, high temperature resistance, high rebound, colorful, sanitary materials, graphene, low-temperature thermal bonding, mosquito repellent, antibacterial, etc. The product has been shortlisted/selected for the “China Fiber Trends” for five consecutive years. In March this year, the company launched a silver-based antibacterial spandex product, which attracted the attention of the downstream high-end market. With the help of nanotechnology, this product contains silver ion antibacterial agents in a certain proportion. It is added to the spinning solution and made into antibacterial spandex through a special spinning process, so that the spandex has strong antibacterial and sterilizing effects while maintaining excellent performance. The good performance of the product perfectly meets the quality requirements of people’s pursuit of health and comfort.
The outstanding performance prompted the expansion of production capacity
The “good days” of spandex “Will it continue?”
In the context of a good market, the performance of spandex manufacturers is naturally very impressive.
One of the leading domestic spandex companies, Taihe New Materials announced its semi-annual performance forecast on the evening of July 6. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2021 of 400 million yuan-450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.45%-262.76%. The announcement stated that since the beginning of this year, demand in the spandex industry has continued to be strong, production capacity concentration has increased significantly, spandex sales prices have continued to rise, and profitability has increased significantly year-on-year.
The performance is outstanding, and both production and sales are booming, which naturally promotes the company’s expansion of production. Huafeng Chemical stated on the investor interactive platform on June 27 that it will raise no more than 5 billion yuan in non-public funds, and plans to invest all of it in the 300,000 tons/year differentiated spandex expansion project and the 1.15 million tons/year adipic acid expansion project. (six issues). Huafeng Chemical said: As the price of spandex rises, the company’s shipments increase, the company’s profits are guaranteed, and the company far surpasses its peers in energy, depreciation, labor, equipment, raw material transportation, etc., with significant cost advantages. In the future, with 300,000 tons With the gradual commissioning of the expansion project, the company will further strengthen its cost moat. Moreover, according to Huafeng Chemical’s plan, with the completion of the second phase of Chongqing’s 100,000 tons/year differentiated spandex project and the Chongqing 300,000 tons/year differentiated spandex project, the company’s production capacity will exceed 500,000 tons, and the output is expected to reach 60,000 tons. million tons, and is expected to surpass Hyosung and become the world’s largest spandex producer.
It must be noted that the current supply and demand in the spandex industry is still very tight, and industry inventories continue to remain at the lowest level for 12-14 days. Therefore, it is expected that spandex manufacturers will increase their quotations. So what does the second half of the year hold?
Guosen believes that the spandex industry will still maintain a high degree of industry prosperity in the second half of this year, and product prices may still hit new highs in the third quarter.
The “Chemical Fiber Blue Book” predicts: With the gradual release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, industry concentration will further increase and price competition within the industry will inevitably become more intense. In the long run, the profitability of spandex companies still needs to be achieved through the differentiation of their own products or the high efficiency and low cost of production.
The level is low, so it is expected that spandex manufacturers will increase their quotations. So what does the second half of the year hold?
Guosen believes that the spandex industry will still maintain a high degree of industry prosperity in the second half of this year, and product prices may still hit new highs in the third quarter.
The “Chemical Fiber Blue Book” predicts: With the gradual release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, industry concentration will further increase and price competition within the industry will inevitably become more intense. In the long run, the profitability of spandex companies still needs to be achieved through the differentiation of their own products or the high efficiency and low cost of production. </p
