The dumping of cotton reserves has lasted for 4 days. The average transaction price is basically around 16,403 yuan/ton, and the price at 3128B discount is 17,753.5 yuan/ton. Zheng cotton has also risen sharply with the implementation of the dumping and storage. Although there has been some increase in the past two days, It has fallen back, but is still at a high level compared with the previous period. As of July 8, 2021, CY C32S pure cotton yarn closed at 25,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the same period last week. The CC 3128B cotton index closed at 16,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 429 yuan/ton from the same period last week.
Let’s look at cotton raw materials first. On July 5, on the first day of the reserve cotton rotation, not only the sales of 9542.299 tons of resources were 100% completed, but also the average transaction price reached 16,400 yuan/ton (3128 discount price 17718 yuan/ton), among which Xinjiang cotton was sold The average price is 16,510 yuan/ton, and the average price increase is 2,421 yuan/ton. In the next few days, 100% of the sales were still maintained. Such a large increase in price was really confusing. You must know that on July 6, the market price of Zheng Cotton CF2109 contract was 16450-16650, which was “evenly matched” with the transaction price of Xinjiang cotton in reserve. However, the Zheng Cotton warehouse receipt was standard 3128 grade, and it was mainly new cotton in 2020/21. The cotton reserve resources were transferred into storage in 2012 and 2013, and various indicators are inferior to those of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts. However, Xinjiang cotton spot transactions have been relatively deserted recently. It is said that when things go awry, there must be a monster. If you think about it carefully, on the one hand, the yarn production and sales rate in the recent off-season has continued to decline, and there are many cases of textile companies accumulating warehouses. At this time, what are the small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills doing vigorously bidding at high prices for low-grade, low-index state-reserved cotton? ? Moreover, there are currently not many resources that generate warehouse receipts at warehouse points inside and outside Xinjiang with high discounts or that do not meet the conditions for generating warehouse receipts. Ginning mills or traders are also selling goods at low prices. Textile enterprises have a lot of opportunities to choose from; On the other hand, the central bank’s monetary policy has continued to tighten since the first half of 2021, and liquidity has weakened. It is easy to imagine how difficult it is for small and medium-sized cotton textile and clothing companies to get credit. From June to August, export orders from Europe and the United States and other countries once again went to India, Under the premise that Southeast Asian countries such as Pakistan and Vietnam are returning home, small cotton textile mills actually have such a large capital flow and the courage to bid for and hoard cotton from national reserves? It makes people think that among the cotton textile mills auctioned, there are many traders or speculators wearing “vests” who are trading in order to deliberately drive up the price of cotton.
From the perspective of textile enterprises, although there may be many traders among the bidders, the news of the cotton reserve has been circulating for a long time, and textile enterprises also have expectations for the auction. Since last month, news of the rotation of cotton reserves has continued to leak out. Many textile companies have been waiting, so they have slightly reduced the pace of spot purchases. However, the news of the rotation is later than some people expected. Some companies do have replenishment. Due to rigid demand, as of July 2, cotton stocks of textile companies had closed for 36.3 days, so many textile companies actively participated in auctions. In addition, the overall spot quality of Xinjiang cotton last year was not as good as expected. Good-quality cotton was basically purchased by textile companies. Most of the remaining spot resources were characterized by high impurity content and high horse value. Good cotton is no longer available. There are many, and the reserve cotton launched on the first day is 12-year and 13-year cotton. The indicators are slightly different from those of warehouse receipt cotton. However, some Xinjiang hand-picked cotton has better impurity content and horse value than this year’s cotton. For textile companies It is just right to use with cotton. In addition, this year’s market situation is a high profit that has not been seen in ten years for spinning companies. Since December last year, spinning companies have entered a high-profit cycle. The theoretical profit of 32-count carded cards is basically more than 2,000 yuan/ton. In December, it rose to nearly 3,000 yuan/ton, which is at a high level in recent years. , which belongs to the category of “not open for half a year, open for half a year.” Many textile companies have already achieved their annual profit targets in the first half of the year and have made a lot of money. As a result, they have more choices in price increases and are more active in auctions.
In terms of imported yarn, as of July 8, the price of imported yarn C32S with inner plate printing yarn was 25,500 yuan/ton, the price of cross-over yarn C32S was 25,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Pakistan C20S was 21,750 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, respectively Increased by 500, 500, 150 yuan/ton. Recently, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in India, construction and supply have recovered. After the volume increased, the external price dropped slightly and the inquiry volume increased. The inventory of imported yarn at the port is not high, so although the spot transaction volume is light, the market price is strong, especially the 32-count imported yarn is out of stock, and the quotation is on the high side. At present, most of the yarn arriving in Hong Kong is purchased from the end of April to May, and the purchase transaction price is relatively low. Although the RMB has depreciated, the average profit is 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton, which is still relatively generous.
In general, the price increase on the first day was positive. On the one hand, the reserve cotton made up for the structural gap; on the other hand, the price increase was positive. On the other hand, there is also the “first day” factor that brings about the “popular expectation” high price. There is still no shortage of overall cotton resources in the market. At the spot price of 16,500 yuan/ton, the willingness of textile companies to price is very low, showing that it is difficult to accept the rising pace of futures, let alone…Hundreds of thousands of tons of imported cotton have cleared customs quotas at ports and other ports. At present, yarn quotations have generally increased by 300-500 yuan/ton, but low-count yarns are still overstocked, and the price increase is not as high as that of cotton, and profits have begun to shrink. Although some textile companies intend to bid, they are unable to do so because the price increase is too high. Take it and leave it, it’s expected that the bidding pace may slow down as daily rotations become more normalized. </p
