Early this morning, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khatibzadeh said on July 12 that the Iranian nuclear negotiations were close to “containing results.”
Khatibzadeh said at a regular press conference that day that given the progress made in the negotiations held in the Austrian capital Vienna, the negotiations were close to “resulting”. Although there are still unresolved problems, “solved problems outweigh unresolved problems.”
Khatibzadeh said that the parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement have “come a long way” to solve related problems, and the remaining road is not smooth. He hopes that other relevant parties will Able to make decisions that lead to agreements that benefit everyone.
Khatibzadeh said that Iran’s consensus is that the United States should effectively lift sanctions on Iran. Once Iran confirms the relevant situation, it will immediately resume the performance of its obligations.
Yesterday, Reuters quoted sources as saying that OPEC+ has not yet made progress in eliminating differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Russia has been behind the scenes pushing Saudi Arabia and the UAE back to the negotiating table to find a way to reach an agreement. But a Russian source said on Monday that a meeting was not expected to take place this week. In addition, in a joint statement on Monday, Saudi Arabia and Oman called on OPEC+ to continue cooperation and praised OPEC+’s work in stabilizing the oil market.
Credit Suisse analyst Saul Kavonic said in the latest report that China’s crude steel production in 2021 may exceed last year’s 1.06 billion tons. Against this background, Credit Suisse analysts expect that the price of iron ore, the raw material for crude steel, will also continue to rise sharply, and will increase the average iron ore price forecast for this year and next by 20%, entering the global iron ore market in 2022. Supply will remain “reasonably tight”.
Previously, steel industry expert Chen Kexin also held the same view and even expected this figure to reach 1.1 billion tons.
However, Credit Suisse also pointed out that the record profits of the iron ore industry in the first half of this year also stimulated various countries to increase the supply of iron ore. Taking China as an example, from January to June, the cumulative domestic production of raw iron ore was approximately 385 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
Yesterday, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with black prices rising across the board, most energy and chemical products rising, and low-sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil rising by more than 2%.
At the close this morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose for two consecutive days and set new closing highs for two consecutive days. The S&P 500 closed up 0.35%, the Dow closed up 0.36%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.21%. As of Monday, the S&P has hit new highs for four days this month, rising more than 16% this year.
The Pan-European Stoxx 600 Index rose for two days in a row and hit a record closing high, closing up 0.69% and closing above 460 points for the first time. The FTSE Pan-European Excellent 300 Index also rose. 0.7% to a new high. All European stock indexes closed higher, with Italy’s FTSE MIB index leading the way with a gain of nearly 1%.
International oil prices have stopped rising for two consecutive days. U.S. oil fell nearly 2% during the day, and Brent oil prices fell nearly 1.7% during the day. As of the close, WTI August crude oil futures closed down 0.61% at $74.10 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for September delivery closed down 0.51% at $75.16 per barrel.
The central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio more than expected, and the stock index oscillated upward
On Monday, The market basically showed a general rise, with funds concentrated on trading network security concepts, while the lithium battery sector continued to be popular; in terms of industries, catering and tourism, software, petrochemicals, etc. performed well, but the performance of education, insurance, real estate, etc. continued to be sluggish; in terms of period indicators , affected by the cycle, growth, and the sharp rise in some consumer stocks, the CSI 500 is better than the CSI 300 and significantly better than the SSE 50.
“Currently we believe that the index trend is mainly oscillatory, and the trend of the CSI 500 Index is obviously stronger.” Yan Mengyuan, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, explained that the main logic is that on the one hand, High commodity prices have reduced the profits of midstream and downstream companies. On July 7, the National Standing Committee mentioned a timely RRR cut. On July 9, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR cut. Monetary policy has seen a certain change in expectations. At the same time, the costs of midstream and downstream companies have increased. Being hedged will lead to a certain improvement in corporate profit expectations. However, demand has returned to stability but the growth rate slope is slow. Under this circumstance, although liquidity pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, policies will not be overly loose, so the index will generally maintain an oscillating trend.
On the other hand, from the perspective of industry profitability and industry growth, cycle, growth and some consumer stocks performed better, and from the first half of the year, the total market value growth value ranked higher Judging from the previous stock data, emerging industries have clearly occupied the majority of positions on the list.
“In fact, emerging industries already have greater advantages than traditional industries in terms of industry profitability and growth. Therefore, the industry distribution is more even, and cyclical stocks account for a larger proportion. The CSI 500 Index will perform more strongly among the three major futures indexes.” Yan Mengyuan said. In addition, if we consider valuation, the current PE valuation of the CSI 500 Index is still lower than that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300. Judging from the historical quantiles of the index valuation, it also supports the strong trend of the CSI 500 Index.
The overall trend of the glass spot market is relatively strong
Affected by the central bank’s comprehensive reduction Boosted by accurate and June financial data exceeding expectations, the main glass futures contract rose 2.15% to 2,943 yuan/ton on Monday, hitting a new listing high of 2,968 yuan/ton, with a total of 641,000 positions.
Wang Yaqian, an analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that the overall trend of the glass spot market has been good since this month.��Manufacturers’ upward sentiment has not slowed down. “The overall trend of the glass spot market is strong, and the trend of sharp price increases in the early stage has not slowed down. The market transactions are generally good, the downstream processing enterprises are more enthusiastic about placing orders, and the traders’ replenishment speed has slowed down.” She said that the glass spot market has slowed down. Prices were raised actively, with half of the prices across the country being raised. Among them, Hebei Shahe Safety Industry’s 5.00mm large plates rose by 64 yuan to 2,864 yuan/ton, once again setting a multi-year high. Entering the third quarter, the real estate peak season in the second half of the year will also kick off. The number of orders in the processing industry may increase, so there is still room for price growth. The rainy season in East China is gradually coming to an end, and the shipment situation in the region will improve to a certain extent. Orders in the processing industry may increase, so manufacturers are more confident in raising prices in the near future. Overall, mid- to long-term demand is still improving, and a significant upward adjustment is unlikely.
On the futures market, Wang Yaqian said that the main daily glass contract is still in a bullish trend, breaking through the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, the CJL indicator has increased in volume, and interest in positions has increased, MACD The red column of the indicator becomes longer, and the fast and slow lines cross golden crosses. The bullish trend at the weekly level has not changed, and we are treating it with a bullish approach.
Oil prices continue to oscillate at high levels
On Monday, crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at high levels High oscillation. According to Li Wanying, senior energy and chemical analyst at Donghai Futures, on the one hand, the OPEC meeting was canceled and the market was worried that further escalation of internal conflicts among oil-producing countries would trigger short-term growth in production, so oil prices fell back last week. On the other hand, from the perspective of fundamental data, supply and demand in the oil market have improved. Since mid-May, U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen by more than 40 million barrels. As of the week of July 2, U.S. crude oil inventories were 445.476 million barrels, the lowest since the end of February 2020, a decrease of 6.87 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventories totaled 235.497 million barrels, a decrease of 6.08 million barrels from the previous week.
“At the same time, judging from the recovery of the shale oil industry chain, affected by the epidemic last year, the sharp drop in oil prices limited the growth trend of upstream investment. Although with the recovery of oil prices, some Energy companies say they plan to expand spending in 2021, but the increase in spending will still be small. Taking into account the attenuation characteristics of shale oil, we believe that U.S. oil production will be difficult to increase significantly before the third quarter. Overall, oil prices are expected to maintain a high trend. “Li Wanying said.
As oil prices stabilize, the prices of refined oil products, including fuel oil, have also risen significantly. Li Wanying said that from a fundamental point of view, the third quarter is the peak season for domestic trade shipping market demand. Data from information companies show that terminal ship fuel replenishment inventories may increase significantly from July to August, and the gradual control of the global epidemic will also have certain positive effects on ship fuel demand. “However, as profits rise, supply is expected to be restored simultaneously. Therefore, fuel oil prices are expected to follow the short-term oscillations of oil prices.” She said. </p
