China’s economic development has attracted worldwide attention. What are the results of this year’s “midterm exam”? Preliminary GDP accounting data for the first half of the year recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the GDP in the first half of the year was 53.2167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than the first quarter; the two-year average growth was 5.3%, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.3%. The average annual growth rate accelerated by 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter. A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said: In the first half of the year, the national economy can be said to have continued to recover steadily, strengthening while maintaining stability, and improving while maintaining stability. Judging from some of the data currently available, the textile industry has made its own contribution to this report card.
China’s economy delivered a brilliant report card in the first half of the year
This year Since then, our country’s economy has continued to recover steadily and its operating quality has further improved. The overall situation shows four major characteristics:
1. The economy continues to recover stably and the development foundation is more consolidated
In the first half of the year, my country’s GDP was 53.2167 billion yuan. Calculated in variable prices, the year-on-year growth rate was 12.7%, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.3%. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 2840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and the two-year average growth was 4.3%; the added value of the secondary industry was 20715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and the two-year average growth was 6.1%; the tertiary industry increased The value was 29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and an average growth of 4.9% in the two years.
2. The production situation continues to improve, and development momentum continues to be stimulated
In the second quarter, industrial production continued to grow rapidly, and industrial added value increased by 8.8% year-on-year. , driving economic growth by 2.8 percentage points, with an average growth of 6.4% in two years, of which the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 9.2% year-on-year, accounting for 28.3% of GDP, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter, and the rebound in proportion has continued for three quarters. .
3. Consumption plays a significant driving role, and investment and net exports work together
Consumption plays a significant role as a “ballast stone” for economic growth. As a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continue to be implemented, the Qingming Festival, May Day, and Dragon Boat Festival holiday factors have driven the steady recovery of the consumer market, and their role in driving economic growth has been significantly enhanced.
Investment demand drives the sustained and stable recovery of the economy. All regions and departments conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, focus on the “two new and one important” and weak areas, increase the construction of major projects, expand effective investment, and support the recovery of the economy. In the first half of the year, gross capital formation contributed 19.2% to economic growth, driving economic growth by 2.4 percentage points. Among them, total capital formation contributed 13.2% to economic growth in the second quarter, driving economic growth by 1.0 percentage points. In the first half of the year, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 12.6% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.4% in the two years.
From January to May this year, the fixed asset investment in the textile industry increased by 17.1% year-on-year, the clothing industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the chemical fiber industry increased by 21.7% year-on-year.
Net export demand continues to grow. The results of stabilizing foreign trade continue to show, and import and export growth is good. In the first half of the year, net exports of goods and services contributed 19.1% to economic growth, driving economic growth by 2.4 percentage points, and an average of 1.1 percentage points in two years.
According to customs data, China’s textile and apparel exports maintained steady growth in the first half of the year. In terms of RMB and US dollars, they increased by 3.3% and 11.9% respectively over the same period last year. They also maintained rapid growth compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles declined year-on-year due to the fall in exports of masks, while clothing grew rapidly driven by the rebound in external demand.
4. New driving forces boost economic recovery, and new business formats release market vitality
New driving forces have good momentum of development, and emerging industries are active. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 22.6% and 22.8% respectively year-on-year, which was 6.7 and 6.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all industrial added value above designated size respectively.
Textiles contribute to the stable recovery of the industrial economy
In the first half of 2021, overall planning for epidemic prevention The results of economic and social development have continued to be consolidated, the industrial economy has continued to recover steadily, capacity utilization has been at a relatively high level in recent years, exports have maintained rapid growth, and corporate efficiency has improved. Among them, the economic performance of the textile industry has been stable, the production capacity utilization rate has rebounded significantly, and the export of epidemic prevention materials has increased significantly, making industry contributions to promoting the steady growth of the industrial economy.
1. Industrial production has grown steadily and capacity utilization has been relatively high
Industrial production has grown rapidly, with the growth rate higher than the pre-epidemic level. From January to June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 8.6 percentage points from the first quarter; the two-year average growth rate was 7.0% (based on the corresponding number in the same period in 2019, calculated using the geometric mean method) , an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, and the growth rate was slightly higher than the pre-epidemic level. Among them, manufacturing, as one of the three major categories, grew by 17.1%, with an average growth rate of 7.5% in two years, higher than the pre-epidemic level, becoming the ballast stone for the stabilization and reinforcement of industrial production.
Over 80% of industries and products achieved growth. In terms of industries, from January to June, among the 41 major industries, 39 industries achieved year-on-year added value growth, of which 29 industries achieved double-digit growth; from the two-year average, 35 industries achieved growth, and industry growth The coverage reached 85.4%. In terms of products, from January to June, among 612 major industrial products, the output of 535 products increased year-on-year, with the growth rate reaching 87.4%.
Capacity utilization is near�Advanced and applicable environmental protection equipment promotes the formation of stable and efficient governance capabilities. The fifth is to guide the green transformation of product supply. Increase the supply of green and low-carbon products and green environmental protection equipment to provide a solid guarantee for the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation in various fields. Sixth, improve the green manufacturing support system. Create a green public service platform, improve the green manufacturing standard system, implement green supply chain management, and improve the long-term mechanism for industrial green and low-carbon transformation.
Commodity prices are rising
Data show that in the first half of this year, PPI rose by an average of 5.1%. An expansion of 3 percentage points from the first quarter. How does the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology view the cost pressure that rising PPI has put on midstream and downstream enterprises? Will there be further measures to help small, medium and micro enterprises cope with the crisis?
Huang Libin: Affected by the rapid economic recovery and multiple internal and external factors, raw material prices have risen sharply since the beginning of the year and fluctuated at high levels. In the first half of the year, industrial producer prices (PPI) rose by an average of 5.1%. In the second quarter, the year-on-year increase in PPI increased significantly, putting great pressure on the costs of midstream and downstream industries and related companies, squeezing the profit margins of companies. Here, most small and medium-sized enterprises are in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and their bargaining power is not strong. It is difficult to digest the rising cost pressure caused by the sharp increase in raw materials in a short time. The impact of rising costs on the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises is relatively more prominent.
The causes of this round of commodity price increases are complicated. Generally speaking, global demand recovers faster than supply, domestic demand recovers faster than international demand, liquidity is released faster than the real economy recovers, and price increases are largely due to the intertwining of factors such as supply and demand mismatch, external input influences, and speculation. , the result of superposition. Judging from the later trends, unlike the two “super cycles” of rising commodity prices in the 1970s and the beginning of this century, this round of price increases is more the result of the superposition of short-term factors. High global debt, rich and poor Deep-seated contradictions such as differentiation and population aging determine that it is difficult for demand to expand in the long term, and the possibility of significant supply contraction is relatively small, so it is difficult to form a “super cycle.”
The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the impact of rising raw material prices on mid- and downstream industries and small, medium and micro enterprises. The executive meeting of the State Council studied the problem of excessively rapid rise in commodity prices. Recently, monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio reductions have been used to further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, and to hedge against the impact of rising commodity prices on corporate production and operations. .
In the next step, we will cooperate with relevant departments to ensure the supply and price stabilization of bulk commodities, strengthen publicity, guidance and policy interpretation, support upstream and downstream industries in establishing long-term and stable cooperative relationships, and guide the industry The upper and lower reaches of the chain should stabilize the supply of raw materials and the coordination of production, supply and marketing, coordinate to deal with the risk of market price fluctuations, and resolutely crack down on hoarding, malicious speculation, and price gouging. </p
