Compared with the relatively large growth in total cotton production in the United States and India and the relatively stable production in China in 2019/20, Pakistan, another major cotton-producing area and major cotton consumer, is facing a situation of “a sharp drop in output and a sharp increase in imports” this year. .
In 2019/20, Pakistan’s domestic cotton production currently has three data: First, the Pakistan Cotton Crop Assessment Committee reported that Pakistan’s cotton production in 2019/20 was 9.451 million bales (1.6067 million tons); The latest statistics and calculations from the Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) estimate that output in 2019/20 will fall to 1.445 million tons, far lower than the market’s early forecast (as of December 15, the cumulative volume of new cotton on the market in Pakistan reached 1.336 million tons, year-on-year (a decrease of 21.1%); third, USDA’s latest monthly report predicts Pakistan’s total cotton output in 2019/20 to be 1.35 million tons, a decrease of 174,000 tons from the November report. Comparing the three data, the Pakistan Cotton Crop Assessment Committee’s 2019/20 output forecast target has been lowered from 15 million bales to 12 million bales, and is currently adjusted to 9.451 million bales. The credibility and reference are not strong, so the Pakistan Ginners Association The statistics and calculations are more realistic and down-to-earth, that is, 1.4-1.5 million tons.
How much cotton does Pakistan need to import in 2019/20? The U.S. Agricultural Counselor’s report stated that Pakistan’s cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to reach 4.4 million bales (about 748,000 tons), a year-on-year increase of 51.7%; the USDA report predicts that Pakistan will need to import 914,000 tons of cotton; domestic professionals in Pakistan believe that this year’s textile The factory will import approximately 1 million tons of cotton; with the signing of the first phase of the China-US trade agreement, tariff-free entry of Pakistani yarn into the Chinese market, and the depreciation of the rupee to stimulate exports, Pakistan’s cotton imports may reach 850,000-950,000 tons in 2019/20. , surpassing Turkey, Indonesia, India, etc.
Which cotton origins does Pakistan mainly import? Because the scale of Pakistani yarn mills is generally relatively small at present, the dominant variety of yarn count is 32S and below cotton yarn (40S and above account for a low proportion); and high-count combed yarn and compact spinning started later and developed slower than those in India. Therefore, Cotton consumption is mainly medium-low grade and medium-low quality (i.e. color grade M, SLM; resources with strength 28GPT and below and length below 1-1/8).
Firstly, in 2019/20, the lint grade and quality of Texas and other cotton regions in the United States have declined significantly, and the quotation is also slightly advantageous, which is better matched with the needs of Pakistani yarn mills. High; Secondly, Brazil’s output has not only increased significantly this year, but the proportion of low-grade, low-quality machine-picked cotton is still high, which is also an important option for Pakistani cotton mills; Thirdly, in 2019/20, Indian cotton, Central Asian cotton, and West African cotton (West African cotton comes to market late, please pay attention to the shipping date). Judging from the procurement demand of Pakistani yarn mills, it will compete head-on with cotton-related enterprises in Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other countries, stimulating the continued upward trend of ICE. It is reported that the Economic Coordination Committee of the Pakistan Cabinet recently announced the elimination of cotton import tariffs and allowed overland imports of cotton from Afghanistan and Central Asian countries through the Tokam border. </p
