Just now, the U.S. oil June contract opened up more than 8% at $13.35/barrel, and the July contract rose more than 1% at $18.01/barrel. The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision is imminent, U.S. consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, and the market expects U.S. GDP to be negative in the first quarter.
International oil prices rose and fell on April 28. International oil prices stopped falling and stabilized due to the easing of epidemic restrictions in many European and American countries, reductions in API gasoline inventories and attacks on Syrian oil tankers, but continued weak demand and tight U.S. inventories restrained gains.
The API report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9.98 million barrels last week to 510 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.11 million barrels. OPEC crude oil supply increased by more than 2 million barrels per day in April to the highest level since December 2018. The Russian Ministry of Energy predicts that the average oil price in 2020 will be above US$30/barrel. BP expects crude oil demand to decrease by 16 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and shale oil production to decrease by at least 1 million barrels per day.
It is worth noting that after USO, the largest crude oil ETF fund in the United States, announced that it would sell off all June WTI contracts within four days, S&P Global also stated on April 28 , will immediately convert all its WTI crude oil June contracts to July contracts. Market analysts believe that this may cause the June WTI contract to fall into negative values again.
As of early morning closing, the US S&P 500 index fell 0.52%, the European Stoxx50 index rose 1.69%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.07%, WTI crude oil rose 2.63%, and Brent crude oil rose 0.74%, London copper rose 0.43%, gold rose 0.01%, U.S. soybeans fell 0.67%, U.S. soybean meal fell 1.24%, U.S. soybean oil rose 1.10%, U.S. sugar rose 2.56%, U.S. cotton rose 1.51%, and the CRB index rose 0.19%. The BDI index fell 0.91%.
U.S. oil prices fluctuate, the world’s largest commodity index conversion contract
After Monday’s plunge, U.S. oil prices continued to tremble on Tuesday. As of early morning closing today, U.S. WTI crude oil June futures closed down 3.4%, with a settlement price of $12.34/barrel that day; Brent crude oil futures settled at $20.46/barrel, up 2.35%.
During yesterday’s session, the price of U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell by more than 20%, reaching a low of $10.07 per barrel. Subsequently, news of a Syrian oil tanker explosion caused WTI crude oil prices to hit a high of $13.69 per barrel. Reuters cited preliminary reports from Turkey’s state-run news agency Anadolu that an oil tanker exploded in the northern Syrian city of Afrin, killing at least 10 people. In this regard, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, said: “The news of the bomb attack on the Syrian oil tanker caused the oil risk premium to rise, even in a market with oversupply of crude oil. Still, we still need to figure out what it is. Was it an accident and who was responsible?”
In addition, on the afternoon of April 28, there was news that , the S&P GSCI Index will adjust the WTI crude oil June contract to the July contract in advance today. The reason for switching the contract in advance is that the price of the June WTI crude oil futures contract may fall to zero or negative value again. In order to protect the rights and interests of open positions, S&P Dow Jones had to perform contract conversion in advance. According to sources, the contract conversion process will last for one day and will be completed after the market closes on April 28, local time.
It is worth mentioning that S&P Dow Jones also specifically pointed out that if the price of the WTI crude oil June futures contract falls below zero on April 28, the index will be delayed by one day. Roll over and wait for oil prices to rise back above zero.
It is worth noting that there are billions of funds in the market tracking the GSCI index, and investors should pay attention to the market fluctuations that may be caused by contract conversion. Bloomberg’s chief energy reporter Javier Blas posted on social media that S&P Dow Jones’s early conversion of contracts shows that the risk of negative oil prices still exists, and investors need to hedge and adjust their positions in a timely manner.
In addition, USO, the largest oil fund in the United States, also announced on Monday that it will sell all its WTI crude oil June contract positions from Monday to the end of this week, and buy and sell its positions approximately 100% per day. One-third of the total, and it will take 10 days to move the position starting from May 1st. After the USO announced the above decision, the price difference between the June and December contracts of WTI crude oil widened rapidly.
In terms of the latest forecast for oil prices, the international rating agency Moody’s stated on April 28 that the blockade measures have caused high economic costs, the global economic recession is rapidly deepening, and the new coronavirus epidemic will lead to A severe economic recession occurred in 2020, leaving some far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Moody’s expects oil prices to remain low in 2020 and may only gradually rise in 2021 as demand recovers. The price of U.S. WTI crude oil is expected to be US$30/barrel in 2020 and US$40/barrel in 2021; the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$35/barrel by the end of 2020 and US$45/barrel in 2021.
U.S. stocks opened higher and moved lower, the market is pessimistic about U.S. economic data expectations
U.S. stocks opened higher and moved lower last night. As of the close of the day, the S&P 500 index closed down 15.10 points, or 0.52%, at 2863.39 points; the Nasdaq index closed down 122.40 points, down 2863.39 points.Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity in the U.S., said he is working with a team of Chinese researchers to try to find out whether the new coronavirus appeared in Wuhan before it was first discovered in December. other areas of China. This research relied on help from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC).
Professor Lipkin is a virologist who has conducted research on the 2003 SARS and 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemics, and Served as a consultant on “Contagion,” the 2011 film about the pandemic. “The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention is very interested in understanding as much as possible the origins of this type of virus,” he told the Financial Times. “We will share our findings with the entire scientific community without reservation.”
Professor Lipkin helped develop rapid SARS detection reagents in 2003 and has since established long-term relationships with Chinese officials. He visited China earlier this year to discuss responses to the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19, also known as coronavirus disease 2019).
Lu Jiahai, a professor at the Public Health School of Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou and Professor Lipkin’s research partner in China, said that the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has helped Lipkin contacted hospitals and local CDCs across China to obtain blood samples from pneumonia patients from blood banks across the country so his team could study whether the coronavirus was present in the population before it was detected in Wuhan.
“We are tracking the source of the virus across regions and departments,” he said. He added that the research began in early February this year and may be produced later this year. result.
Lu Jiahai said that the problem with existing new coronavirus research is that research relies heavily on cases reported by hospitals, but some people may be infected with the virus and develop symptoms without anyone knowing. Antibody.
He said: “With the help of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a key part of our work is to detect pneumonia patients across the country in December, November and even earlier last year. blood samples.” He added that it was “very important” to study earlier cases of infection, given indications that 30% to 50% of people with the virus do not show symptoms.
Latest updates on the global epidemic: The number of global infections approaches 3.13 million, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 1.03 million
Worldometers real-time statistics show that as of 6:22 on April 29, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide is close to 3.13 million, reaching 3,128,692, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeds 217,000. The number of cases reached 217,082. The United States has the largest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world, with more than 1.03 million cases, reaching 1,030,315 cases, and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 58,000, reaching 58,670 cases; Spain has a total of 232,128 confirmed cases of COVID-19; Italy has a total of 201,505 confirmed cases; France has a total of 165,911 confirmed cases Cases; a total of 161,145 confirmed cases in the UK; 159,735 confirmed cases in Germany; 114,653 confirmed cases in Turkey; 93,558 confirmed cases in Russia; 92,584 confirmed cases in Iran; 71,886 confirmed cases in Brazil; 49,817 confirmed cases in Canada; 47,334 confirmed cases in Belgium; A total of 38,416 cases have been diagnosed in the Netherlands; a total of 31,360 cases have been diagnosed in India.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) estimates that unless rapid action is taken to contain the spread of the new coronavirus, there may be as many as 1 billion cases of infection in countries affected by the crisis. The agency warned that in the worst-case scenario, this could lead to the deaths of up to 3.2 million people. David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, said: “These numbers should serve as a wake-up call: The full, devastating and disproportionate fullness of this pandemic has not yet been felt in the world’s most vulnerable and war-torn countries. impact. We are still in a critical window in which many of these countries need to take strong preventive measures in the early stages of COVID-19 to prevent the epidemic from spreading further around the world.” The IRC said in a statement, according to London Modeling and data provided by Imperial College London and the World Health Organization were used to make these estimates. </p
