The United Kingdom has become the new eye of the global epidemic. London and southeastern England have been locked down, more and more countries have banned entry from the United Kingdom, and the United States has experienced its worst week since the epidemic. European and American stock markets and futures have fallen across the board. International oil prices once fell by more than 4%, and the dollar-pound exchange rate once rose above 1.32, recording the largest single-day decline since March. The recent out-of-control epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has once again cast a shadow on the market’s recovery next year.
After the UK, South Africa’s new crown also mutated
Global travel bans escalated, affecting the entry of goods
On December 14, the UK announced the emergence of a mutated new coronavirus VUI-20201201. The virus was first discovered in a patient in September. A few days later, on December 19, British Health Secretary Hancock talked about the current COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and stated that the new strain of COVID-19 discovered in the country was out of control!
The new variant of the virus is currently believed to be 70% more transmissible than the original strain, and mutated viruses have been found in every region of the UK except Northern Ireland. As soon as news broke that the mutated virus was out of control, new regulations began to be issued around the world. So far, more than 50 countries and regions have issued varying degrees of travel restrictions on the UK.
The British side stated that the new variant may have been spread to foreign countries, and the most urgent task at present is to ensure that the variant virus does not cause higher mortality.
However, according to feedback from various countries, it is not “possible” that the virus has spread to foreign countries, but “has definitely” spread to foreign countries: Denmark, Iceland, Gibraltar, the Netherlands, and Australia. Confirmed cases have been reported in China, Italy, and variant viruses have also been found in France, South Africa, and Belgium.
New York State Governor Cuomo said frankly on Monday that based on his experience this spring, he believed that the new variant of the virus had entered New York. He demanded that British flights provide proof of negative coronavirus tests for tourists and called on the United States to cut off British flights.
Almost at the same time as the UK, a mutated new coronavirus also appeared in South Africa, but it is not the same one as the UK one!
On December 21, local time, South African officials confirmed that a mutated new coronavirus (501.V2) is spreading widely in the country, which has led to the recent diagnosis of new coronavirus pneumonia in South Africa. and the number of people hospitalized for treatment has surged. The new mutated virus spreads more easily among young people. Many young people with no underlying diseases show more severe symptoms than before after being infected with the new coronavirus.
Salim Abdul Karim, Chairman of the Cabinet Advisory Committee of the South African Government, said at a press conference: “At this stage, preliminary Data shows that the virus that dominated the second wave of the epidemic is spreading faster than the virus in the first wave.”
South Africa is the country with the worst epidemic in Africa. Since December Since the 10th, the second wave of the epidemic has hit. Currently, the number of new confirmed cases every day is as high as 8,000-10,000, which has returned to the peak period in June and July.
Affected by the epidemic, South African Foschini Group, Woolworths Holdings and other retailers are increasing the proportion of purchases from local apparel manufacturers. To reduce dependence on the import of Chinese products and consolidate supply chains that have been disrupted by various countries’ epidemic prevention measures. These retailers have signed an industrial plan that aims to increase the proportion of local manufacturers in overall procurement from an average of 44% to 65% in the next ten years.
This trend also invites the attention of Chinese exporters. It will be 2021 in a few days, will everything be fine?
Standard Chartered’s shocking prediction for 2021:
Oil prices fall back to US$20 /Bucket, Biden resigns…
Eric Robertsen, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, recently released his annual surprise report on financial markets. It is “unlikely” to happen in the next year, but eight major events that will subvert the market if they happen are predicted, including the RMB exchange rate rising to 6 against the US dollar, the collapse of OPEC causing the oil price to fall to US$20, and Biden’s resignation leading to a sharp correction in US stocks. The dollar plummeted and so on.
In last year’s annual report, Robertson listed two major “non-zero probability” events that became a reality this year, including the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and gold prices hitting $2,000 per ounce. He also predicted that the S&P 500 would rise 20% this year, which is very close to the index’s actual gain this year.
The following are Robertson’s eight surprising events in 2021:
1. The U.S. Democratic Party won seats in Georgia, took control of the Senate, and launched a legislative agenda of tax increases and regulatory reforms targeting the technology industry.
This will cause technology stocks to plummet and U.S. Treasury yields to rise sharply on supply concerns.
2. The dollar-yuan exchange rate fell to 6.00.
3. Monetary and fiscal stimulus fuel the strongest recovery in the global economy in a century
The rush to recover from physicalInvestors and traders who profited from the industry moved more and more funds into markets such as copper, driving copper prices to soar by 50%.
4. OPEC split
In order to fill financial funds, oil exporting countries gave up supply quotas, and OPEC (OPEC) cooperation also collapsed. The impact is that oil prices will fall back to 20 per barrel. Dollar.
5. Hopes for fiscal stimulus in Europe dashed
The European Central Bank’s ability to support the economic recovery is increasingly being questioned, with its policy rate at zero and its balance sheet to GDP ratio approaching 100%. The impact is that the euro-dollar exchange rate will fall to 1.06 by the middle of next year.
6. The U.S. Treasury Department abandons its strong-dollar policy
When Congress fails to cooperate on a fiscal plan, the next Treasury Secretary Yellen will try to ease financial conditions by weakening the dollar exchange rate. It could cause the dollar to plummet 15%.
7. Emerging market debt defaults and sovereign downgrades
Corporate debt defaults start slowly and then spread to government-backed entities, leading to rating downgrades. This will cause emerging market stock markets to fall by 30% in the second quarter of next year, and the full-year performance will be the worst since 2013.
8. U.S. President Joe Biden resigns
Frustrated by his failure to bridge the divide between Republicans and Democrats and under pressure from growing protests and social unrest, Biden was He was forced to resign and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris.
This will lead to a sharp correction in U.S. stocks, expansion of credit spreads, and accelerated depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
The upstream rising logic is fragile
The textile industry may be negative for the polyester industry Chain formation is conducted from bottom to top
Affected by this incident, the domestic commodity market has experienced a general decline in recent days. Varieties that had seen greater gains in the early stage also changed their strength and turned downward. In this regard, market participants said that the decline in the commodity market was more caused by changes in market sentiment caused by the “mutations of the British virus”, despite the support of the US$900 billion fiscal rescue bill and the US$1.4 trillion regular government budget. , it is difficult to change the market weakness.
The previous rise in commodity prices was based on the expectation that the market will improve next year, but in fact, no one will know what the market will be like next year before the time node arrives. not sure. The current common market logic is that as long as a vaccine appears, the epidemic can be controlled immediately, and after the epidemic is controlled, demand will immediately pick up. And such a logical chain itself is relatively fragile. As long as there is an error in one link, the entire logic will collapse.
At this stage, the overseas epidemic has broken out again, foreign trade demand has also been affected, and the terminal order situation has not improved significantly. If the overseas epidemic is not effectively controlled for a long time, the global economic recovery will be If it is blocked, China’s exports will once again face downward risks. In addition, the accelerated appreciation of the RMB since June has had a certain adverse impact on export companies, which will lead to an increase in the cost of export products, thereby affecting the international market competitiveness of export companies’ products. Therefore, the textile industry, which is highly dependent on exports, faces greater uncertainty in the future.
The negative impact of the textile industry has been transmitted from the bottom up to the polyester industry chain. Coupled with the wave of production expansion in the past two years, on the one hand, it has led to products with overcapacity and intensified the contradiction between supply and demand. On the other hand, products with early supply gaps are also facing a reversal in the contradiction between supply and demand. </p
