The polyester industry experienced a long-term decline during the COVID-19 epidemic. Finally, in the second half of last year, it began to conquer cities and territories one after another, and successively recovered the prices lost from 2018 to 2020. After the Spring Festival, polyester products continued to decline in holding costs, orders, and cotton categories. Prices continued to rise by leaps and bounds despite the surge in reinforcements and other weapons to arm ourselves. However, the continued rapid rise will inevitably bring about a correction, and the crude oil support above gradually became weak. Finally, after March, news of the decline in polyester raw materials came…
The prices of the main contracts of PTA and ethylene glycol futures were like riding a “roller coaster”, with prices falling sharply on the 8th and 9th trading days. Analysts said that although the fundamentals of the polyester raw material market have not changed fundamentally, market risks are accumulating, and it is necessary to be alert to the risk of further price declines.
Due to the crazy rise in raw materials in the early stage, the two recent high production and sales were due to the increase in upstream raw material prices driving downstream enthusiasm for purchasing goods. The rest of the time Mainly purchase for urgent needs. For the weaving market, the biggest problem at the moment is the high price of raw materials, which is not unacceptable to companies. However, the sudden rise and fall that may be caused by various uncertain factors in the future is what makes companies panic!
Weaving capital bet: Weaving inventory is transferred to raw material inventory
After the Spring Festival, the raw material market is strong Under the impact of the epidemic and near the end of the month, stock replenishment is routine. Most weaving manufacturers have more or less purchasing operations. It is reported that many weaving manufacturers’ stocking has increased to about 40 days, which is a significant increase compared with the previous 10-15 days.
With the surge in raw materials this year and good shipments, although the inventory of weaving manufacturers has been much lower than in previous years, they have transferred the weaving inventory to raw material inventory, resulting in financial constraints. , and many weaving factories are under the pressure of bank loans. For a while, it is difficult for weaving manufacturers to withdraw funds, which is not enough to support replenishment in the short term.
The upstream and downstream conditions lag, so stocking up depends on the price!
The early stocking of raw materials by weaving manufacturers was largely affected by the mentality of “buy up, not buy down”. However, in the past two days, polyester raw materials have risen and fallen sharply, and polyester yarn prices have risen sharply. Raw materials have been fluctuating, which also causes weaving manufacturers a headache. Although most weaving manufacturers have strong expectations for the improvement of raw materials, they are still worried that the sharp rise will be followed by a sharp drop in the short term.
At the same time, the prices of raw materials have increased since the market opened on the seventh day of the first lunar month, and more than half of the fibers have increased by more than 10%. The weaving and garment making sectors resumed work one after another from the ninth to the fifteenth day of the Lunar New Year. At this time, the textile raw material market was still rising, while the weaving, printing, dyeing and garment manufacturing sectors were either in a situation where workers were being replaced or there were no new orders. In addition, Most of them have already held certain raw material orders before the holiday, so from the perspective of terminal orders, they cannot accept the increase in raw material prices for the time being.
It’s too early to go sideways, and the weaving and garment making process is on the sidelines again
As soon as March entered, the textile raw material market changed from a post-holiday increase with a stable increase to a stable increase with a decrease, and some products even turned to decline. At this time, the price of cloth increased. It is difficult and unwilling to fall. Based on the current situation, foreign orders are waiting to wait and see for the fall. Cloth merchants in some areas cannot hold back and directly calculate the cloth price based on the raw materials stockpiled before the holiday. When there is still room for profit, they start to take the lead. The price promotion has been transmitted to some links of gray fabrics and began to appropriately reduce positions.
From a downstream psychology point of view, once the price of raw materials plummets at this time, the cost of gray fabrics made from high-priced raw materials will become higher. Once the market continues to decline, the cost of gray fabrics will become higher. Without inventory, it will be even worse for the company’s production and operation. The weaving sector also urgently needs the strong price of raw materials to continue until the end of the month, because during this period, end customers have gradually accepted the current market conditions. As long as the wait-and-see mentality of the raw materials and the wait-and-see mentality of the backside are relieved by the end of the month, and the mentality of waiting for a drop is gradually reduced, the market in late March will Also wait and see.
I have worked hard for more than half a year, fearing that I will return to before liberation. Raw materials fluctuate, and it is the downstream that ultimately pays the bill!
</p
