On March 10, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with PTA falling by the limit, ethylene glycol, staple fiber, methanol, etc. falling by more than 5%, crude oil falling by more than 3%, and Zheng cotton falling by more than 2%.
Why did it plummet?
“In terms of macroeconomics and sentiment, inflation expectations are rising, and U.S. bond yields continue to rise, triggering a sharp adjustment in global stock markets, and the overall market sentiment is weak, which in turn affects the commodity market. At the same time, , the early pace of commodity rise was too fast, and bulls had profit-taking needs.” said Zhou Ao, energy analyst at Everbright Futures.
“The supply of ethylene glycol is still tight in the short term. From a domestic perspective, although the price of ethylene glycol continues to rise, the profits of various process routes have rebounded significantly, which seems to be able to improve the early stage. Although there are still many coal chemical industry parking devices that cannot be restarted in the short term due to other special reasons.” Zhou Ao said that from overseas, as the temperature rises, the number of shutdowns due to extremely cold weather Parked US ethylene glycol plants are also gradually recovering, but overall, there are still more parked plants in the Middle East and North America, and my country’s tight ethylene glycol imports will continue from March to May.
From the perspective of new production capacity, it is unlikely that large-scale equipment such as Satellite Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will be mass-produced in April. The real release of output may be as early as May. moon.
In terms of demand, as polyester plants are gradually opened and gradually restored, the polyester load has increased rapidly, the start of texturing and weaving has basically returned to the level before the Spring Festival, and the inventory of gray fabrics continues Declining, improving demand has provided obvious support to raw material prices.
It is reported that due to the sharp increase in ethylene glycol prices in the early stage, the profits of each process have increased significantly, resulting in a significant rebound in operating rates. Driven by high profits, as devices in North America, the Middle East, Asia and other places begin to gradually resume production, the increase in domestic production in the later period cannot be underestimated.
According to statistics, in March, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol increased to 68.3%, the operating rate of oil processing increased to 72.91%, and the coal processing load increased to 60.37%. Satellite petrochemicals are also about to be put into production. Domestic supply may increase significantly from April to May, and the arbitrage window is more likely to be closed, which will exert a certain suppression on the price of the 2105 contract.
On the 8th, the Zhangjiagang spot market transaction price was 5850~6160 yuan/ton, down 372.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 5.84%; the transaction price of ethylene glycol CFR in China 760 ~ 800 US dollars / ton, down 50 US dollars / ton from the previous day, a decrease of 6.02%.
From the demand side, although the operating rate of the downstream polyester market has been improving recently, the polyester operating rate has increased steadily and remains above 90%. However, the transaction data of China Textile City has cooled down significantly since this week. Judging from the production and sales data of downstream polyester, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips reached 19.8%, 4.86%, and 12.86% respectively on Wednesday, and the trading volume was slightly light.
“Considering that the current domestic ethylene glycol port inventory is still at a relatively low level, there are many short-term uncertainties, and the market is volatile, it is recommended to operate with caution.” Zhang Xiao said.
Jintai Futures Energy Chemical Analyst Chen Jie believes that the correction of polyester varieties such as ethylene glycol, styrene, and PTA on Tuesday was mainly due to the slowdown in the upstream crude oil trend. . The early shift in the focus of polyester varieties was mainly driven by the cost of crude oil. With the recent rise in international oil prices and the decline in domestic downstream polyester prices and production and sales, domestic production capacity has continued to increase, and the tight supply and demand situation is expected to gradually ease.
Therefore, the recent market rise of PTA, ethylene glycol and other polyester varieties is not solid enough. Supply-side pressure may gradually appear in the later period, and short-term polyester varieties may follow the oil price to maintain prices. High oscillation and consolidation trend.
Crude oil prices rose sharply due to geopolitical conflicts. It was later confirmed that the attack did not cause loss of life and property, and crude oil prices fell after rising. On Tuesday, the chemical sector followed the decline in crude oil prices, and PTA positions continued to decline that day, falling 4.78% following the commodity sector.
The expectation of tight supply of crude oil prices has not changed for the time being. International investment bank Goldman Sachs raised Brent crude oil futures prices by US$5/barrel to US$75/barrel in the second quarter, and raised its target price for the third quarter to US$80/barrel.
“The main logic of PTA trading is that the increase in cost will give it a strong boost. In the early stage, the price of PX increased significantly. As the price of crude oil fluctuated, the price of PX changed up and down. , the current quotation from individual suppliers is US$690/ton, which is still in a strong range.” Xie Wen, senior analyst at Zhongda Futures, said that in terms of supply and demand, there has been a lot of PTA maintenance recently, and a 2.5 million-ton PTA device in the Northeast was installed in March. The vehicle will be shut down for maintenance on the 6th and is expected to last about 2 weeks. A 1.4 million-ton PTA unit in East China will be shut down for maintenance on March 6 and is expected to last for one month. A 1.2 million-ton PTA unit in the northwest has been shut down, and its restart is to be tracked.
“The current PTA processing fee fluctuates between 300-400 yuan/ton, which is at a low level. In March, many PTA manufacturers have maintenance plans and low processing fee conditions It is not ruled out that more maintenance will occur, so there will be a supply contraction of PTA in the short term.” Zhou Ao said.
In the view of industry insiders, the decrease in supply and increase in demand has led to a significant strengthening of the basis. The current strengthening of the basis has led to the cancellation of PTA warehouse receipts and flowed into the market. From March 3 to 9 , a total of 5,675 PTA warehouse receipts were canceled.
PTA is hereBoosted by crude oil prices, the cost side supports the market; PTA processing fees are difficult to increase, and PTA maintenance volume continues to rise; polyester operating rate increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 92%; the fundamentals of reduced supply and increased demand promote the upward movement of the PTA price range . “Considering that the recent disturbances in commodity trends are more affected by the 10-year U.S. bond yield, short-term PTA prices may fluctuate greatly. The tight supply of crude oil has not changed for the time being. After crude oil prices stabilize, There is a high probability that PTA prices will rise in the future,” Xie Wen said. </p
