PTA market prices were weak and volatile this week. International crude oil prices were mixed during the week. With costs dominating the market, the PTA futures market fluctuated and adjusted with the trend. The current spot liquidity is tight, and the futures and spot basis once rose. Many companies reported a decrease in April due to equipment maintenance. Contract supply is used to support market prices, so PTA is believed to have certain resilience in the short term. From the perspective of supply and demand, PTA unit maintenance and restart are parallel this week. Hainan Yisheng and Hengli Petrochemical 4# units have restarted, and Zhuhai BP unit has entered maintenance. Therefore, PTA continued to destock during the week; downstream polyester factories started stably, the load remained high, and the demand for PTA remained rigid. Taken together, there is no clear information guidance on the cost side. In the short term, PTA equipment maintenance will increase, and the improvement in supply and demand will support the PTA market. It is necessary to pay attention to polyester production and sales and downstream terminal orders.
3.1 International crude oil prices fluctuate and adjust
From the supply side, OPEC’s stance on production reduction has not changed yet, and the impact of this week’s Suez Canal grounding incident may also be greater It was short-lived, but signs of increased Iranian crude oil supply emerged, and some traders have begun to pay attention to the matter. On the demand side, although Europe and the United States are still resuming work and production under the epidemic environment, the epidemic situation in many European countries has worsened recently, and the vaccination process has been slightly stagnant, causing demand concerns to emerge. At the same time, the recent low ordering sentiment of China’s independent refineries has also made overseas traders worried about the periodic weakening of demand. From a policy perspective, the U.S. dollar’s recent performance is still strong, and the liquidity benefits brought by RMB 1.9 trillion have not yet been demonstrated, which puts certain negative pressure on oil prices. From a geopolitical perspective, no vicious incidents have occurred in the Middle East, and US-Iran relations have also reached a deadlock. The sanctions imposed on Iran may be difficult to lift in the short term.
The recent decline in international oil prices is also a correction to the previous excessively fast and excessive rise. At the same time, it can be observed that oil prices have surged and plummeted during the week, and it can be felt that the forces of short and good are still intertwined, and in the absence of guidance in the market, traders are still constantly weighing the direction. However, before the OPEC meeting on April 1, the mentality Be cautious.
To sum up, international oil prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week. Demand-side concerns and a slightly stronger US dollar may still put some pressure on them, but the results of the OPEC meeting in early April may be positive. It is expected that WTI may operate in the range of 58-62 US dollars/barrel, and Brent may operate in the range of 61-65 US dollars/barrel.
3.2 PTA processing fee has increased slightly
The current PTA processing fee is around 353.24 yuan/ton.
3.3 PTA startup load increases
The domestic PTA load is 82.77%.
3.4 downstream polyester production and sales are low
Polyester production and sales this week were average, with a high of 90% and a low of around 25%.
3.5 Equipment Change Expectations
This week, PTA equipment maintenance and restart are parallel, Hengli Petrochemical 4# 2.5 million tons unit and Hainan Yisheng 2 million tons The device restarted during the week, and Zhuhai BP’s 1.25 million ton device entered maintenance. Chuanshengda and Ningbo Yisheng may be expected to undergo maintenance next Thursday, and maintenance arrangements for other devices cannot be ruled out.
3.6 Expected changes in downstream polyester
At present, according to Longzhong’s understanding, there are plans to restart devices in the polyester field next week, such as Huiwei 150,000 tons/year device, domestic polyester output and load may increase slightly from this week, so it is expected that next week (20210326-0401) the output of the polyester industry will be around 1.13-1.14 million tons, and the load will rise to 93% Nearby level.
Supply expectations: This week, Hengli Line 4’s 2.5 million tons and Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons devices will restart, BP’s 1.25 million tons device will undergo maintenance, and the weekly TA output will be 1.0307 million tons, an increase of 57,900 tons from last week. The increase is 5.95%; next week, Sichuan Energy Investment, Jiaxing 1.5 million tons, and Baihong 2.5 million tons equipment will be inspected. The output is expected to be 1.0157 million tons next week, down 15,000 tons.
Demand expectations: Shanghai Yuanfang’s 660,000-ton unit will be overhauled this week, and Lanshan Tunhe’s 60,000-ton unit will be overhauled. This week’s polyester weekly output will be 1.1389 million tons, down 8,000 tons from last week. 0.69%; Huvis’ 150,000-ton unit is expected to restart next week, and the weekly output next week is expected to be 1.1406 million tons, an increase of 1,800 tons; the overall supply and demand accumulation next week is 12,300 tons.
Cost analysis: The short-term crude oil market may be favorable to stimulate a rebound, and the chemical cost side is supported; multiple units have restarted, short-term PTA output is high, PX supply and demand may still be tight, and PX processing differences are expected to recover upward. Therefore, we believe that the cost side may have strong shocks, and the space given below is relatively small.
Costs lack trend logic and may fluctuate in the short term; supply and demand may continue to accumulate inventory next week, but maintenance in April is still relatively concentrated, so supply and demand may continue to destock in April, and spot circulation may first stimulate the market . Therefore, we believe that the PTA market may continue to fluctuate next week, lacking room for downside. </p
