Since May 28, Zheng Cotton has entered an oscillatory rebound channel. The CF2109 contract has continuously broken upward from 15,500 yuan/ton. The intraday high on June 7 was 15,965 yuan/ton, which is only one step away from the strong resistance level of 16,000 yuan/ton. However, driven by the atmosphere of “buy up but not down” and the gradual entry of raw material replenishment cycle by small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises, the inquiry and shipment of medium and low-grade/quality Xinjiang cotton have picked up compared with April/May. The entire cotton market The optimism that “all the bad news is gone and the rebound is about to start” is getting stronger.
Some cotton-related companies in Xinjiang believe that as the economies of Europe and the United States and other countries accelerate their economic recovery, commodities return to the upward path again after a short period of decline, and the 2021 cotton reserve rotation policy has “no news.” “; In addition, cotton spinning mills receive and arrange orders smoothly in June/July, so there is a high probability that the focus of the CF2109 contract will move to 16,000-16,500 yuan/ton, but whether it can test 16,800 yuan/ton or 17,000 yuan/ton It also requires the cooperation of news, fundamentals and external commodity markets.
The author previously judged that the main contract of Zheng Cotton will consolidate in the range of 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton, and there is a possibility of testing 16,000 yuan/ton or temporarily breaking through 16,000 yuan/ton. However, there is little hope of pulling the oscillation range up to 16,000-16,500 yuan/ton in the short term. In particular, short sellers cannot easily give up the 16,000 yuan/ton mark, and the “blocking war” will begin. The reasons are as follows:
First, although it has entered early June, the expected concentration of large and medium-sized cotton textile mills and large-scale replenishment have not arrived as scheduled. It is only a “painless” purchase by small factories below the designated size. There is no joint effort;
The second is that the 2021 sliding quasi-tariff cotton import quota is about to be issued, and some cotton spinning companies have “overdrafted” the quota and locked in foreign cotton supplies. According to the survey, cotton inquiries and transactions in US dollars quoted in China’s main port last week were relatively active. A few traders even said that sales of Brazilian cotton and US cotton have surged, and the pressure on Zheng cotton from the huge foreign cotton inventory at the port cannot be underestimated;
The third is short-term central bank flows The trend of tightening policies is difficult to change, and it is increasingly difficult for cotton and cotton spinning companies to obtain credit support. The Fed’s sale of corporate bonds is a tightrope act trying to minimize the impact, but in the end it focuses on releasing tightening signals to suppress inflation. This is a manifestation of wanting to control inflation but not putting pressure on financial stability; China Precautions have been taken in advance, and the monetary policy is quite determined. On the other hand, monetary policy is determined, but it is no longer possible to flood the water, and local water shortages are unavoidable;
Fourth is the improvement of Sino-US and Sino-European relations There is still great uncertainty, and the difficulties faced by textile and clothing exports are worse than in 2019, 2020 or even worse. In just six days, China and the United States launched two economic dialogues. However, just when all parties were looking forward to the trade, economic, and political confrontation between China and the United States, on June 3, the Biden administration suddenly announced sanctions on 59 Chinese companies. Enterprises, listing them as prohibited investment targets for U.S. capital, casting a shadow on the further improvement of Sino-U.S. relations;
Fifth, as the Xinjiang cotton area enters sunny and hot weather, farmers promptly With dripping water and top dressing, cotton has entered a period of rapid growth, and the bullish speculation theme has weakened. </p
