Initially the day before yesterday, the global demand outlook was further optimistic and the US dollar index fell, pushing oil prices up to hit a new high since 2018. However, after that, the Iran nuclear deal negotiations The re-emergence of optimistic news caused oil prices to fall back on their original path.
During the Asian session on Thursday, oil prices were still fluctuating and consolidating at a relatively high level. Investors are waiting for further guidance on the supply and demand outlook in the future. Although in the context of high oil prices , all parties have begun calling on OPEC+ to accelerate growth, and the Saudi Energy Minister’s speech overnight also hinted that OPEC will cooperate in controlling oil prices to curb global inflation.
But before the OPEC+ meeting next week, the game between the parties is still going on. Therefore, the oil price The upward trend cannot be reversed even if the U.S. dollar index continues to be strong. NYMEX crude oil does not rule out the possibility of further testing $75 in the short term, especially as the peak summer car use season in the United States is about to begin.
NYMEX crude oil prices continued to rise this week against the backdrop of rising supply pressure, and are expected to close out five consecutive positive weeks. This has further strengthened the confidence of bulls in the oil market, and some observers have even begun to bet that international oil prices will rise to a high of $100 by the end of this year to next year.
The market’s attention is focused on OPEC+’s monthly meeting again next week.
According to plan, OPEC and its allies will continue to increase production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day in July, but this has long been expected by the market and is completely It is not enough to eliminate the current supply gap, which means that U.S. and global oil inventory levels are expected to continue to decline after entering the peak summer demand season. A mere 500,000 daily additional production capacity is not enough to turn the overall market situation.
On the demand side, analysts say the key factors OPEC+ must consider are growth in the United States, Europe and China Strong, thanks to vaccinations and economic reopening; but the impact was offset by rising COVID-19 cases and outbreaks elsewhere. Prospects for U.S. sanctions on Iran to be lifted soon allowing more oil to return to the market have dimmed. Washington may need to reconsider its approach to Iran if deep differences between the United States and Iran over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are not resolved “in the foreseeable future,” a senior U.S. official said on Thursday.
Therefore, the market is more concerned about whether OPEC+ will expand its production increase, or at least reveal its expectations in this regard, and the prospects for negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to attract attention. If there is no news of unexpected supply growth, it is still reasonable for oil prices to continue to climb. As long as $72 is held in the short term, the upward trend will continue to be consolidated.
There has been no major correction in oil prices since the rise on May 21, and bulls’ fear of high prices continues to accumulate. On the other hand, the upcoming meeting on July 1 Uncertainty remains over the OPEC+ meeting, and although Saudi Arabia prefers to proceed with caution, Russia is already considering proposing an increase in production, and both sides must reach a compromise at this meeting.
In this context, the market chose to wait and see for the time being, waiting for further trends in the meeting. It is expected that the oil market may be relatively calm before the meeting.
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