Abstract: U.S. crude oil inventories fell, German economic data strengthened, questioning the possibility of the United States and Iran returning to the nuclear agreement, and European and American crude oil futures continued to rise to 32 months Come to the highest point. Affected by the rise in international crude oil, the spot futures price of polyester raw material PTA has risen sharply. Under the favorable cost support, bottle flake companies have generally raised their quotations by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the overall trend of polyester bottle flakes has recently shown an upward trend. .
Although this month is the peak season for polyester bottle flakes, this year there has been a sluggish peak season. The continued weak demand and early low-price stocking have caused a stalemate in the polyester flake market. phenomenon, and these situations will continue to affect future market expectations. Although there were some traders covering positions and downstream bidding in the early stage, the downstream market is more cautious in taking orders.
There are several reasons that affect the price of polyester bottle flakes:
Cost: With the recovery of the global economy and the improvement of overall demand, the price of international crude oil has continued to rise. Since June, the overall trend of international crude oil has become stronger, with the price of WTI constantly breaking through 70 US dollars per barrel. It may even reach a price of US$75/barrel. The price of polyester raw material PTA has increased significantly, driven by crude oil. Although crude oil has performed strongly recently, the guidance for the ethylene glycol market is limited, and the market is still dominated by the supply and demand side. The main reason for changes in ethylene glycol prices is the battle between the maintenance and restart of existing equipment and the progress of new equipment.
Supply: A factory in East China in June Restarted on the 10th, the current month’s polyester bottle flake production utilization rate is 84.94%, an increase of 1.85% from the previous month, which has alleviated the tight shipment situation in some areas, but the current social inventory of bottle flakes is still at a high level.
Demand: At present, summer is the peak consumption season of the soft drink industry, and the overall soft drink industry is still at a relatively high level. From the perspective of the third quarter market, the soft drink industry’s delivery is relatively stable from July to early August, and can be guaranteed To a certain extent, the shipment volume of polyester bottle flakes companies is guaranteed, so the willingness of factories to raise prices under oversold conditions still exists.
Profit: So far this month, the average profit of polyester bottle flakes is 6,417 yuan/ton, and the average profit margin is -154.14 yuan/ton. At present, the profit of bottle flakes is still at a low level. The reason for the compression of the processing range of polyester bottle flakes is not only its own supply and demand pressure, but also the periodic strength of the raw material end market.
Market outlook: It is currently the peak travel period in summer, which has led to an increase in fuel demand. Cross-border controls in Europe and the United States have continued to relax, international crude oil has risen sharply, and polyester raw materials have followed suit, which has provided support for bottle flakes. Stronger, the production cost of polyester bottle flakes has increased, the cash flow of bottle flakes has continued to deepen, and profits are still below the cost line. The downstream demand performance is not optimistic. In addition, the supply of goods in some areas is tight, and factories have a strong willingness to increase prices. So far this month, the contract execution of some traders has been poor. However, judging from the recent trend of crude oil, the aggregation cost will continue to rise, and the possibility of low-priced supply on the market is small. Boosted by favorable conditions from all aspects, it is expected that in the near future The market for polyester bottle flakes may continue to rise.
</p
