July is an unusual month, and it is also an uneasy month.
The rising market price of PTA is like a fire after another burning the upstream and downstream markets of the entire industry chain. Amidst the excitement, it suddenly turned sharply and fell one after another, attracting many people in the industry. stunned.
In the past two days, international oil prices have continued to fall, with significant declines. On the 7th, international oil prices hit their biggest drop since the end of May.
Similarly, the 7-day futures closed at night, and the main PTA contract has already dropped to the limit during the morning trading session. On the day, it fell again by 4.17% to 4964 yuan/ton. PTA futures prices continue to fall, which is undoubtedly a shock to the market. This is in clear contrast to the previous wave of rising prices.
Data shows that before the limit fell, the trend of PTA futures prices in the recent period can be described as strong. Ridiculous, it continued to surge ahead of the market, reaching the 5,500 yuan mark. And spot prices have reached price highs in two years. Due to the uncertainty about the future, chemical products represented by PTA have been frantically reducing their positions and selling off, and the major players have significantly reduced their positions.
In July, the price of polyester filament has been rising, driven by the price of upstream polyester raw materials. At the beginning of last week, polyester products were actively rising amid optimism about costs and supply and demand. June is the traditional off-season for polyester consumption. However, this year, polyester factories have lowered filament prices in promotions and transferred profits to downstream companies. As a result, the terminal loom factory operations are higher than the same period in previous years, and the texturing plant operations are not slow in the off-season. However, the decline in the circulation speed of gray fabrics and the large accumulation of inventory have made factories pessimistic, and raw material inventory has been low. Crude oil continued to break through, and terminal factories were worried about rising costs. They entered the market to replenish their stocks in early July, adding further impetus to PTA and EG, which had already been boosted by costs. Now that polyester raw materials have fallen sharply, where will polyester filament go next?
The editor believes that downstream demand is the driving force that determines the future upward trend of polyester filament!
The transaction volume of elastic fabrics increased rapidly
The operating rate of some weaving enterprises Boost the market
The current weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 72.17%, showing a slight upward trend. The operating rates of warp knitting enterprises in Haining and Changshu are mostly maintained at around 85%-95%. However, it is difficult to significantly increase the operating rate of water looms. Affected by the increase in demand in winter, the market transactions of island fiber suede, dual-purpose mesh fabrics for clothing, some knitted polyester and spandex fabrics, nylon-polyester stretch fabrics and elastic flannel fabrics have been active, while the imitation silk fabrics have declined compared with the previous period. In the market, polyester filament is used as raw material, and the transaction activity of the elastic fabric market has increased rapidly, which has driven the start-up rate of some weaving companies to a certain extent.
Cloth merchants actively stocked up goods, but orders declined due to push
The blind increase in raw material prices has intensified downstream pressure.
The number of raw material stocking days of downstream weaving companies has shown an upward trend, and gray fabric inventories have declined. From the data It seems that the situation is improving, but many downstream users have reported that the increase in the number of days to purchase raw materials is on the one hand driven by the recent increase in upstream textile raw materials, on the other hand it is optimistic about the future market and stocking up in advance, or it may not be driven by real demand. The inventory of gray fabrics has declined slightly. The main reason is that cloth merchants are actively hoarding goods. On the other hand, there are partial orders to promote the downward trend. However, the terminal market still needs to be fully promoted. The placement of partial new orders cannot fully drive the improvement of the industry. At present, The arrival of the peak season is still too early. In addition, the recent surge in sea freight has made it difficult to find containers, resulting in a longer payment cycle for weaving companies. The blind increase in the price of textile raw materials can only intensify the pressure on the downstream. Judging from all aspects of the situation, the terminal weaving market still needs urgent attention. The price of upstream textile raw materials remains rational and stable, so that new domestic and foreign textile orders can be better negotiated and followed up.
It is worth noting that both domestic and export sales of textiles and clothing performed well in the first half of the year. Domestic sales basically returned to pre-epidemic levels, and were on a steady growth trend in the second half of the year; the current high shipping prices The growth of exports is still limited, but as the shortage of containers and the inefficiency of maritime logistics are resolved in the second half of the year, there is still hope for exports.
New growth in weaving and texturing
Demand for polyester Forming rigid support
From the polyester end, this year’s downstream weaving and texturing has a large new increase and high startup, forming a rigid support for polyester demand. As oil prices and polyester raw material prices continue to rise, the downstream purchasing mentality has also undergone some relatively positive changes, and speculative stocking needs have begun to appear. However, considering that the current polyester end inventory is high, profits are thin, and polyester load There is still pressure.
However, as long as the price of raw materials no longer rises or falls sharply in the later period, polyester and downstream industries can still maintain a certain level of profitability, and demand is still resilient, waiting for the traditional peak season of the Golden Nine and Silver Ten to gradually start. In addition, the operating rate of polyester remains above 90%. Due to obvious price reductions and destocking in the downstream, and the weaving off-season operation continues, the short-term polyester operating rate remains high.Maintain strong judgment. </p
